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Title: December 18, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 18 DECEMBER 2025
 
LOCAL SITREP (from the 57730 hood) CUSTER COUNTY, SOUTH DAKOTA WEATHER EVENT
 
Significant damage to homes and property in Custer County after 24 hour extreme wind event from 17 Dec. through 18 Dec. Thousands are still without power, temps dropped to -13 below with windchill overnight. Electric COOP & Utility Crews assisting from multiple counties across the state, continue to repair downed power lines. It’s estimated that it could be 2-3 days, possibly until Monday for power to be restored county-wide. Residents are resilient and were mostly prepared to respond to this challenging event.
 
U.S. 901 BILLION DOLLAR DEFENSE BUDGET
 
The Senate gave final passage Wednesday to an annual military policy bill that will authorize $901 billion in defense programs.
 
The annual National Defense Authorization Act, which raises troop pay by 3.8%, gained bipartisan backing as it moved through Congress. It passed the Senate on a 77-20 vote before lawmakers planned to leave Washington for a holiday break. Two Republicans — Sens. Rand Paul and Mike Lee — and 18 Democrats voted against the bill.
 
The White House has indicated that it is in line with President Donald Trump’s national security priorities. However, the legislation which ran over 3,000 pages, revealed some points of friction between Congress and the Pentagon as the Trump administration reorients its focus away from security in Europe and toward Central and South America.
The bill pushes back on recent moves by the Pentagon. It demands more information on boat strikes in the Caribbean, requires that the U.S. keep its troop levels in Europe at current levels and sends some military aid to Ukraine.
 
But overall, the bill represents a compromise between the parties. It implements many of Trump’s executive orders and proposals on eliminating diversity and inclusion efforts in the military and grants emergency military powers at the U.S. border with Mexico. It also enhances congressional oversight of the Department of Defense, repeals several years-old war authorizations and seeks to overhaul how the Pentagon purchases weapons as the U.S. tries to outpace China in developing the next generation of military technology.
 
“We’re about to pass, and the president will enthusiastically sign, the most sweeping upgrades to DoD’s business practices in 60 years,” said Sen. Roger Wicker, the Republican chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
 
U.S. BLOCKADE OF VENEZUELA
 
Escalation. U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers traveling to and from Venezuela, a week after the U.S. seized a sanctioned vessel carrying oil in the Caribbean off the Venezuelan coast. In a social media post, Trump also suggested Caracas should cede land, oil and assets to the United States that it “previously stole from us.” The Venezuelan government condemned Trump’s comments, calling them a “reckless and serious threat.”
 
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO
 
Support for Washington. Trinidad and Tobago said it will allow U.S. military aircraft to transit through its airports as part of its ongoing cooperation with Washington. The island nation is located 10-12 kilometers (6-7 miles) off the coast of Venezuela, so the move could help facilitate future U.S. operations against Caracas. In a statement, Trinidad and Tobago’s Foreign Ministry emphasized that access is being granted as a logistical arrangement.
 
Frozen assets fallout. Ratings agency Fitch has placed Euroclear Bank on “rating watch negative” due to “increased liquidity and legal risks” from the European Union’s plans to use frozen Russian assets to assist Ukraine. The agency said in a statement that it will resolve the matter when it receives clarity and detail on whether and how the EU plans to provide Kyiv with the profits accrued from the frozen assets, which are being held by Euroclear. Brussels is set to decide later this week on whether it will offer Ukraine a reparations loan from the money to fund its defense and recovery.
 
GERMAN POLL ON UKRAINE
 
Opinions on Ukraine. Some 45 percent of Germans who responded to a new poll were in favor of reducing financial aid to Ukraine, while 20 percent wanted to increase it. The survey, conducted for Politico also found that 37 percent of French respondents favored cutting support for Ukraine, while 24 percent wanted to give more. By comparison, 37 percent of U.S. respondents and 35 percent of Canadian respondents supported boosting support.
 
U.S. & PAKISTAN: GAZA TALKS
 
Talks on Gaza. Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, will fly to Washington in the coming weeks to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump. The meeting, their third in six months, will focus on Pakistan’s potential participation in the International Stabilization Force in Gaza. Islamabad is reportedly concerned that its involvement in the U.S.-backed plan could reignite protests from Pakistan’s Islamist parties.
 
CHINA’S ECONOMIC PIVOT
 
Chinese priorities. China’s top economic priority in 2026 will be expanding domestic demand, an official from the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission said Beijing plans to introduce measures to boost consumption and reverse the decline in investment, aimed at improving livelihoods and strengthening long-term growth momentum.
 
RUSSIA & CHINA PROPAGANDA MACHINE
 
Media matters. The so-called Global Fact-Checking Network, backed by Russian state-owned news agency Tass, said it is collaborating with China in “the fight against deepfakes.” The head of the organization spoke at a forum for Russian and Chinese media interests in Beijing on Tuesday and urged greater cooperation on the matter.
 
CHINA & JAPAN
 
War of words. Japan has “no right” to comment on China’s defense spending as a country with a “history of aggression,” a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said.
 
The official was commenting on remarks made by the Japanese foreign minister about China’s significant increase in military expenditure in recent years, calling the comments “malicious smears against China’s legitimate national defense development.”
 
FRANCE & ARMENIA
 
Looking ahead. French and Armenian defense officials held talks in Paris this week. They discussed joint projects in 2025 and plans for the following year. The defense ministries from both countries signed a cooperation agreement for 2026 following the meeting.
 
GZB INFOCUS: Visualizing the $117 Trillion World Economy in 2025
 
Key Takeaways:
 
• The U.S., China, and Germany are the top three countries by GDP in 2025.
 
• India ranks in fifth, averaging 6.4% in real GDP growth since 2000.
 
America’s $30.6 trillion economy is greater than China, Germany, and Japan combined, with real GDP set to rise 2% this year.
 
In comparison, India’s economy is projected to grow 6.6%, among the fastest rates across the world’s largest economies. It is only surpassed by Ireland, as frontloading of exports is expected to expand GDP by a striking 9.1% in 2025.
 
This graphic shows the state of the world economy in 2025, based on projections from the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook

https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025
 
Germany, on the other hand, has seen notably sluggish growth for decades. In both 2023 and 2024, the economy contracted, while growth is expected to be just 0.2% this year. Along with weak productivity growth, its manufacturing sector has been in decline since 2018.
 
Similarly many European countries have averaged less than 2% growth over the last 25 years. Italy, the eighth-biggest economy, has averaged just 0.4% GDP growth, while in France, it has been just 1.2%.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Build resilient communities.
 
—END REPORT