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Title: December 27, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 27 DECEMBER 2025
KNOW THY ENEMY: Understanding the banners of Jihad
 
ISIS (Islamic State) and al-Qaeda (AQ) flags are variations of the Jihadist flag typically black or white with the Shahada (Islamic declaration of faith) in white Arabic script, symbolizing a radical Islamist ideology, but ISIS uses a distinct seal of the Prophet below the text, distinguishing it from AQ's more general black standard.
 
Key Characteristics:
 
• Common Base: Both groups use the "Black Standard" (Rayat al-Uqab) a traditional symbol in Islamic history, often black with white text.
 
• The Shahada: The core message is "There is no god but God, and Muhammad is the messenger of God" (La ilaha illa Allah, Muhammadun rasul Allah).
ISIS (Islamic State) Flag
 
• Colors: Black background, white Shahada.
 
• Distinct Feature: A white circle containing a stylized, red-outlined seal representing the Prophet Muhammad's seal (often depicted as three lines) beneath the Shahada.
 
• Symbolism: Represents a vision for a global caliphate, with its unique seal claiming divine mandate.
 
Al-Qaeda (AQ) Flag
 
• Colors: Black background, white Shahada.
 
• Distinct Feature: Often just the black background with the white Shahada, sometimes with a white circle containing a red sword and "Allah" or "AQ" text, though simpler versions are common.
 
• Symbolism: Represents global jihad against perceived enemies of Islam, focusing on the foundational declaration of faith.
 
In essence, the ISIS flag adds a specific seal to the standard jihadist design, setting it apart from al-Qaeda's generally simpler, though still recognizable, black standard.
 
DAESH/ISLAMIC STATE FLASH REPORT
 
**IS Propaganda Campaign Urging Holiday Season Attacks** –
 
Global: Al-Naba Issue 527, published on 25 December, featured a prominent editorial titled "The Season of Terror!" explicitly calling on IS supporters to conduct attacks during Christian and Jewish holidays. The editorial praised past attacks such as the 2016 Berlin Christmas market truck ramming that killed 12, and urged followers to target "crowds of Christians and Jews in the heart of Europe, America, and the statelet of the Jews, running them over with buses and striking and smashing with heavy hammers". The propaganda piece positioned holiday celebrations as periods of heightened vulnerability for Western societies and framed attacks during these times as acts fulfilling religious obligations of Al-Wala' wal-Bara' (Loyalty and Disavowal). The incitement serves as a direct call for lone-actor attacks, urging sympathizers to "plunge into the crowds" and “confirming” that such violence is the "highest form of separation" from non-believers.
 
**IS Activity and Tactics** Evolving Tactics:
 
The reporting reinforces established IS tactics for lone actors, focusing on low-capability, high-impact operations. It heavily promotes vehicle-ramming attacks ("running them over with buses") and assaults with crude, easily obtainable weapons ("striking and smashing with heavy hammers"). The primary tactical innovation is psychological, framing these attacks as the ultimate expression of faith and the necessary fusion of preaching (Da'wah) with violence (Jihad)—"follow the word with the bullet."
 
SYRIA MOSQUE BOMBING
 
**Mosque bombing in Syria leaves 8 dead and 18 wounded** - A bombing at a mosque in the Syrian city of Homs during Friday prayers killed at least eight people and wounded 18 others, authorities said, as long-standing sectarian, ethnic and political fault lines continue to destabilize the country, even as large-scale fighting has subsided. Images released by Syria’s state-run Arab News Agency showed blood on the mosque’s carpets, holes in the walls, shattered windows and fire damage. The Imam Ali ibn Abi Talib Mosque is located in Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, in an area of the Wadi al-Dhahab neighborhood dominated by the Alawite minority. SANA, citing a security source, said that preliminary investigations indicate that explosive devices were planted inside the mosque. Authorities were searching for the perpetrators, who have not yet been identified, and a security cordon was placed around the building, Syria’s Interior Ministry said in a statement.
 
***Note: **Religious Sites as Targets:
 
The Strategic Significance of Terrorism Against Places of Worship** - Terrorist violence is never random. Even when an attack appears impulsive or opportunistic, the selection of a target reflects a strategic calculation. In recent days, renewed attacks against places of worship—mosques, synagogues, and churches—have once again demonstrated a grim pattern: extremists consistently choose sacred spaces not merely for casualties, but for symbolism. These acts are designed to fracture social trust, provoke sectarian fear, and transform houses of peace into theaters of terror. This pattern is neither new nor accidental. From the 2019 Christchurch mosque attacks in New Zealand to synagogue shootings in the United States, church bombings in Africa, and mosque attacks in the Middle East, places of worship have become among the most psychologically potent targets available to violent extremists.
 
ISRAEL CAR-RAMMING
 
**Israel police say 2 killed in car-ramming and stabbing attack by Palestinian** - A Palestinian assailant rammed his car into a man and then stabbed a young woman in northern Israel on Friday, killing both, police said, as the Israeli defense minister quickly ordered military retaliation on what he said was the attacker's West Bank hometown. The attack began Friday afternoon in the northern city of Beit Shean, where the Palestinian man crashed his vehicle into people, killing one man and injuring a teenage boy. He then sped onto a highway, where he stopped and fatally stabbed the woman, said police. The man was 68 and the woman, 18, said paramedics, who pronounced both dead at the scene. The attacker was headed for the nearby city of Afula when a security officer shot him, Israeli President Isaac Herzog said.
 
MIDDLE EAST BRIEF
 
ISRAEL
 
Risk assessment. Israel is unprepared to defend Jerusalem against the threat of an Oct. 7-style attack from East Jerusalem and surrounding areas, according to a report by State Comptroller Matanyahu Englman. Nearly 40 percent of the border around the West Bank and Jerusalem lacks protective barriers, the report said, and forward command posts are currently too close to the border, putting troops at risk.
 
Annexation plans. Israeli political and military officials are considering making the ceasefire line the new border with Gaza, Israeli news site Walla reported. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may seek U.S. support for the move during his visit to Washington at the end of December, the report said. Gaza would shrink by more than half if the new boundary was drawn at the so-called Yellow Line, ceding Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahia, Khan Younis and a significant portion of Rafah city. Separately, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with Hamas negotiators in Ankara to discuss the transition to phase two of the peace plan and review Palestinian political developments and the situation in the West Bank.
 
SYRIA & RUSSIA
 
Syria-Russia relations. Syria wants to raise bilateral relations with Russia to a strategic level, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani said at a joint press conference with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. For his part, Lavrov said Moscow is unconditionally committed to Syria’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence. He also said a meeting between al-Shaibani and Russian President Vladimir Putin on bilateral and regional issues had been productive.
 
CTP/ISW Key Takeaways:
 
• Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Tanker Seizure: The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) seized a “foreign” tanker near Gheshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on December 24. The IRGC claimed the tanker was smuggling four million liters of oil. It is possible that Iran seized the tanker in response to recent US seizures of tankers in the Caribbean Sea.
 
• Iranian-backed Iraqi Militia Disarmament:Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are reportedly demanding major concessions from the United States if the militias agree to US demands to disarm. These concessions would not support US policy objectives in Iraq.
 
• Syrian State-Global Coalition Counterterrorism Efforts: Recent Syrian government operations against the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) are coordinated with the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, which enables US forces to target mid- and low-ranking ISIS commanders throughout Syria. US forces were previously unable to target ISIS commanders throughout Syria during Assad’s rule and were limited to isolated high-profile raids against Islamic State “caliphs.”
 
• Saraya Ansar al Sunnah Attacks in Syria:Saraya Ansar al Sunnah, an ISIS-aligned Salafi-jihadi group, claimed responsibility for an improvised explosive device (IED) attack on an Alawite Mosque in a Homs City Alawite neighborhood on December 26. Saraya Ansar al Sunnah likely attacked this target in order to reignite the Sunni-Alawite sectarian strife that has recently occurred in Homs City.
 
• Saudi-UAE Deliberations in Yemen: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia may be reaching a compromise designed to restrain the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) after its recent gains in eastern Yemen. The Saudi Foreign Affairs Ministry blamed the STC for causing “unjustified escalation” when it launched its offensive into eastern Yemen and reiterated its demands for STC withdrawal in a December 25 statement.
 
GZB INFOCUS:
 
Understanding The Military Benefits of Quantum Technology
 
Modern militaries increasingly depend on the continuous functioning of complex systems rather than on decisive battlefield victories. Military advantages, then, are created less by the outright elimination of an enemy’s capability and more by its slow degradation. How states maintain functional control of these systems – which are under constant pressure – has thus become a geopolitical issue.
 
Encryption, for example, may be intact today but could later become vulnerable to exploitation. Satellite disruption could introduce errors that compound over time (and distance), even if it’s initially inconsequential. Sensors may still “function,” but they may do so intermittently and unreliably. Modern war is, in this sense, fought through partial loss and adaptation, placing a premium on technologies that offer accuracy, trust and coherence under stress.
 
Enter quantum technologies. In contemporary scientific and policy usage, quantum technologies are defined as systems whose operation depends on the controlled manipulation of physical states governed by quantum mechanics, enabling performance characteristics that cannot be achieved through classical physics alone. In strategic terms, their significance lies in extending the operational life of foundational systems already under stress. In practice, the most consequential effects of quantum technologies will be found in cryptography, communications security, navigation and timing, and precision sensing – domains where loss of accuracy compounds fastest during high-intensity conflict.
 
Indeed, the most immediate strategic concern relates to encryption. Current military, government and industrial networks rely on public-key encryption systems such as RSA and elliptic-curve cryptography. These systems secure authentication and key exchange by exploiting mathematical problems that are extremely difficult for traditional computers to reverse. Their security lies in the assumption that solving these problems requires too much time and computational effort.
 
Quantum computing upends this assumption by enabling specific algorithmic speedups against certain mathematical problems. Algorithms developed for quantum systems sharply reduce the difficulty of the problems underlying RSA and ECC. The strategic risk is cumulative: Sensitive data intercepted and stored today may become readable once sufficiently capable quantum computers mature.
 
This prospect reshapes long-term risk calculations and drives early migration toward post-quantum cryptographic standards.
 
Quantum communications, meanwhile, address a narrower but critical vulnerability in this process. Despite common misconceptions, quantum communications does not enable instantaneous signaling; all usable information exchange still depends on classical channels constrained by the speed of light. Rather than transmitting data, quantum communication systems are used to distribute encryption keys. By encoding key material in quantum states, these systems make interception detectable during the exchange itself, since observation alters the state being measured. If interference is detected, the key is discarded. Communication then proceeds over conventional networks using keys whose integrity has been verified. These systems are not scalable for general communications and remain dependent on classical infrastructure, but they can provide heightened assurance for a small number of extremely high-value links (strategic leadership communications, critical infrastructure control, diplomatic or financial backbones).
 
Quantum technologies could also reduce dependence on satellite-based positioning, navigation and timing. Satellite navigation and timing systems underpin precision strikes, coordination and synchronization. During times of disruption, these systems experience positional and temporal error as operations continue.
 
Classical inertial navigation systems measure motion using mechanical or electromechanical components – tiny masses suspended on springs or vibrating structures whose displacement under acceleration is converted into position and velocity over time. These systems are inherently noisy: Thermal fluctuations, material imperfections, vibration and aging introduce small errors that compound rapidly as measurements are integrated, causing positional accuracy to degrade quickly once external references such as GPS are lost. Quantum inertial navigation replaces mechanical objects with atoms cooled to near absolute zero – which behave as coherent matter waves rather than solid objects. Acceleration and rotation shift the quantum phase of the atomic wave, producing interference patterns that encode motion with far greater stability than mechanical sensors. The system does not determine absolute position; instead, it measures changes in motion with reduced noise, slowing the accumulation of error and extending the period over which navigation and timing remain precise without external updates.
 
Finally, quantum sensing uses exceptionally stable quantum states to measure minute changes in gravity, magnetic fields and motion. Quantum sensors can thus detect localized disturbances that conventional sensors struggle to resolve. In military applications, they can be used against stealthy platforms such as submarines or concealed underground systems, albeit at constrained and typically short ranges.
 
Quantum sensing does not enable wide-area search or persistent tracking and does not replace sonar networks, satellites or traditional intelligence reconnaissance and surveillance.
 
Militaries at the edge of these technologies use quantum systems to hedge their bets against other systems. The U.S. National Security Strategy and China’s 14th Five-Year Plan feature post-quantum cryptography transitions and limited testing of quantum-resilient navigation and sensing for high-value systems. Most other states are preparing to adapt through external standards rather than independent development.
 
This approach reflects the realities of contemporary conflict. In Ukraine, neither side has achieved persistent denial of satellite navigation, communications or sensing; instead, both have imposed intermittent disruption that degrades accuracy and slows decision-making. Precision has not disappeared so much as it has become dependent on redundancy, workarounds and continual adaptation.
 
Economically, quantum technologies matter for the same reason they matter strategically: They help secure systems whose failure would impose cascading costs. Financial markets, energy grids, telecommunications networks and industrial control systems depend on trusted encryption, precise timing and continuous synchronization. Quantum development functions as a hedge against long-term systemic exposure.
 
Transitioning to post-quantum cryptography and timing and navigation requires a ton of money, institutional coordination and long investment horizons. (Importantly, quantum systems benefit those who already have advanced financial and industrial ecosystems in place. They’re not a newly available foundation for power in themselves.) Quantum technologies are expensive not because of computational complexity, but because they require sustained control over fragile physical states. This demands extreme cooling, isolation, precision fabrication and continuous calibration that only capital-intensive systems can support.
 
Geography reinforces these constraints. Development and deployment require a stable energy supply, controlled environments, secure facilities and proximity to research and industrial centers. In other words, quantum systems will have to be tethered to specific locations. These locations – not diffused networks writ large – will benefit from the resilience offered by new technologies. Quantum will insulate existing power centers from future threats, but it won’t create new power centers all over the world. The result is consolidation rather than transformation, with outcomes determined less by innovation alone than by the capacity to sustain investment, infrastructure and integration over time.
 
Over the next several years, quantum development is likely to function as a force multiplier for states already able to afford long-term investment. Advanced industrial powers will consolidate their advantage through integration. Quantum technologies are unlikely to deliver sudden military dominance or rapid economic transformation. Instead, their significance lies in how they shape the ability of states to maintain operations as core systems are increasingly contested. And because they are more likely to be adopted by wealthier and more technologically advanced states, they will reinforce power hierarchies instead of reshaping them. In this sense, quantum is a revolution not in how power is exercised but in how it is protected.
 
Background:
 
Military quantum technology leverages quantum mechanics for breakthroughs in computing, sensing, and communication, offering advantages like super-fast data analysis, ultra-precise navigation (GPS-free), detecting stealth threats, and unbreakable secure comms via Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) and post-quantum cryptography.
These dual-use technologies enhance intelligence, logistics, and strategic planning, creating a new domain for military power and driving an international race for dominance, with nations investing heavily in research, talent, and development.
 
Key Applications:
 
• Quantum Computing:
 
◦ Logistics & Strategy: Optimizing complex supply chains, resource allocation, and battlefield simulations.
 
◦ Data Analysis:
 
Processing vast datasets for faster, more accurate military decision-making.
 
• Quantum Sensing:
 
◦ Navigation: Enabling precise positioning and timing in GPS-denied environments using quantum clocks and inertial sensors.
 
◦ Detection: Identifying submarines, underground tunnels, or stealth aircraft by detecting subtle magnetic or gravity shifts.
 
• Quantum Communication:
 
◦ Secure Communications: Using QKD to create communication channels immune to eavesdropping, crucial for future cyber defense.
 
◦ Cyber Warfare: Developing algorithms resistant to future quantum attacks (Post-Quantum Cryptography) to secure data.
 
Strategic Importance:
 
• Military Power: Offers transformative capabilities across land, air, sea, space, cyber, and underwater domains.
 
• Global Race: Nations are heavily investing, recognizing its role in future warfare and economic security, prompting new policies, ethics guidelines, and talent development.
 
• Dual-Use Nature: Technologies benefit both civilian and military sectors, creating challenges for international governance and standards.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 
—END REPORT
 

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