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Title: December 3, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 3 DECEMBER 2025
 
U.S.
 
Death of Afghan commander, financial stress surface in National Guard shooting investigation: Sources. As investigators continue to delve into what may have motivated the suspect in the deadly National Guardsmen shooting last week, a portrait of a life of increasing financial stress and a potential mental health crisis has emerged, sources familiar told reporters. Additionally, multiple sources said that investigators are looking into the impact of the recent death of an Afghan commander, who allegedly worked with the suspect, 29-year-old Rahmanullah Lakanwal. The death of the commander — whom Lakanwal is said to have revered — had deeply saddened the suspect, sources said. This may have compounded on Lakanwal’s financial burdens, including not being employed, having an expired work permit and allegedly struggling to pay rent and feed his children, sources said.
 
NOTE: This somewhat substantiates reporting on his reception to being radicalized.
 
GERMANY
 
German military says thousands of rounds of ammunition were stolen from a parked vehicle last week. The German Defense Ministry confirmed Tuesday that “a shipment of thousands of rounds of ammunition” bound for the armed forces was stolen from a civilian contractor’s trailer last week. On Nov. 28, the military discovered that the shipment was missing approximately 20,000 rounds of ammunition, the spokesperson said, without providing further details. The theft comes just as Germany is attempting to beef up its armed forces after years of sluggish investment and cultural discomfort with the country’s military. A week before the heist, Germany’s coalition government put forward a bill to grow the military’s staffing to 260,000 soldiers, up from around 180,000 currently, in addition to an extra 200,000 reservists, by 2035.
 
NOTE: GZB is hedging bets that the culprits are likely linked to terror orgs/Jihadists — or they are criminals that will sell the ammunition to Jihadists.
 
FRANCE
 
French authorities detain two minors in terrorism probe. French anti-terrorism prosecutors have opened an investigation into a suspected plot to carry out attacks, leading to the arrest and pre-trial detention of two minors, authorities said Monday. While officials did not specify the intended targets, Franceinfo reported the pair had planned to attack Israeli interests, citing a source close to the case. The prosecutor’s office declined to confirm that detail. It added that since the beginning of the year, 20 minors in France have faced terrorism-related charges.
 
EUROPE, SOUTH AMERICA & AFRICA
 
How Venezuelan Gangs and African Jihadists Are Flooding Europe With Cocaine. Venezuela has become a central transit hub for cocaine bound for Europe, with traffickers exploiting its weak institutions, long coastline and corrupt officials to move record volumes of Colombian-produced drugs. Shipments travel by aircraft, boats and semi-submersibles to West Africa, where jihadist-linked groups move the cargo north toward European markets. The surge reflects unprecedented cocaine production and overwhelmed traditional routes. U.S. pressure on strongman Nicolás Maduro has highlighted Venezuela’s role, though much of the flow heads to Europe rather than the U.S. Recent seizures in Africa and Europe underscore the scale and reach of the trade, while instability and coups in the Sahel have weakened international efforts to disrupt trafficking.
 
AQ/Daesh/ISIS ONLINE EXTREMISM
 
Foreign terror labels curb ISIS, but US radicals face fewer limits online, study finds Dr. Casey Babb, terrorism professor and director of the Promised Land Project with Canada’s Macdonald-Laurier Institute, told Fox News Digital that policymakers already have the authority to curb homegrown extremism. The NYU report mirrors that frustration, concluding that the U.S. has "ample tools" to confront extremism but applies them unevenly. It found that when foreign terrorist designations restrict groups like al Qaeda and ISIS, their online reach collapses. Babb said extremists are "learning from one another," adopting propaganda and recruitment methods once pioneered by Islamist organizations. "Groups like ISIS, al Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood were some of the early adopters of these platforms," he said. "They recognized many, many years ago the power of these social-media outlets to recruit, to disseminate harmful messaging and to really undermine the populations that they target." He also blamed social-media companies for enabling the spread of hate. The Digital Aftershocks report concludes that U.S. policymakers and tech platforms must coordinate more aggressively to combat online extremism.
 
IRAQ
 
U.S. Warns Iraq That Israel Will Strike Militias Supporting Hezbollah. US envoy Tom Barrack reportedly warned Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani that Israel would strike Iran-backed militias in Iraq if they attempt to aid Hezbollah in Lebanon. During meetings in Baghdad, Barrack urged Iraq to prevent any escalation and restrain factions supplying Hezbollah with funds or weapons. The warning, carried by Saudi outlet Al-Hadath, follows intelligence that Israeli forces view Iraq as an emerging threat axis. Washington has pressed Baghdad to curb pro-Iran groups as regional tensions rise following intensified Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets.
 
ISW Key Takeaways:
 
• Iranian Military Cooperation with US Adversaries: Iran and key US adversaries likely shared tactical and technological lessons on December 2 as part of a five-day military exercise in Iran. IRGC-affiliated media published photos of Iranian forces using first-person view drones during the exercise, which are widely used by both Russia and Ukraine and have changed the character of the modern battlefield.
 
• Iraqi Government Formation: Iraqi media reported on December 2 that US Special Envoy to Iraq Mark Savaya is pressuring the Shia Coordination Framework to exclude Iranian-backed candidates from the premiership and key ministerial positions. The exclusion of certain candidates who are publicly aligned with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias or parties from key ministerial positions is unlikely to curb Iran’s influence within Iraqi government institutions, however.
 
• Suwayda Political Consolidation: The anti-Syrian government Suwayda National Guard conducted several politically motivated arrests and killings of prominent Druze individuals in Suwayda Province on November 28, likely as part of an effort by the anti-Syrian government Suwayda Autonomous Government to discourage dissent and to consolidate political control.
 
• Syrian Democratic Forces’ Integration: Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan presented a plan for Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) integration into the Syrian Ministry of Defense that aligns with the SDF leadership’s federalized vision for Syria as the March 10 agreement’s December 31 deadline approaches. Both the SDF and the Syrian government have refused to concede their fundamental negotiating positions, which would require them to change their views on the centralization of state power. The lack of compromise increases the risk for renewed conflict in the short term.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Build resilient communities.
 
—END REPORT