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Title: February 2, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 2 FEBRUARY 2026
 
CTP MIDDLE EAST BRIEF
 
ISW Key Takeaways:
 
US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations:Iran has shown little willingness to concede to US demands on the missile program, regional proxy network, and nuclear capabilities. These three items form the long-standing pillars of Iranian defense strategy, and changing them would require a long strategic rethink in Tehran.
 
Iranian-Russian Cooperation: Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary (SNSC) Ali Larijani met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on January 30 to discuss current developments and bilateral economic ties, according to Iranian and Russian media. Larijani’s visit to Russia comes amid a flurry of diplomatic efforts by Iranian officials to avert US military action against Iran.
 
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Integration into the Syrian State:
 
The Syrian government has compelled moderate Kurdish leaders to drop their opposition to Syrian President Ahmed al Shara’s model of state centralization. Several indicators suggest that hardline SDF leaders may refuse to abide by the SDF’s new agreement to integrate, which risks instigating new conflict between government forces and Kurdish fighters as the agreement is implemented.
 
Nouri al Maliki’s Aims for the Iraqi Premiership: State of Law Coalition head and former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki appears to be attempting to preserve his nomination as prime minister-designate amid US and domestic opposition. A State of Law parliamentarian threatened Parliament Speaker and Progress Party member Hebet al Halbousi’s position if the Progress Party does not support Maliki for the premiership.
 
IRAN’S NUCLEAR SITES
 
**Satellite photos show activity at Iran nuclear sites as tensions rise over protest crackdown**
 
As tensions soar over Iran's bloody crackdown on nationwide protests, satellite images show activity at two Iranian nuclear sites bombed last year by Israel and the United States that may be a sign of Tehran trying to obscure efforts to salvage any materials remaining there. The images from Planet Labs PBC show that roofs have been built over two damaged buildings at the Isfahan and Natanz facilities, the first major activity noticeable by satellite at any of the country's stricken nuclear sites since Israel's 12-day war with Iran in June. Those coverings block satellites from seeing what's happening on the ground — right now, it's the only way for inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor the sites, as Iran has prevented access. The new roofs do not appear to be a sign of reconstruction starting at the heavily damaged facilities, experts who examined the sites said. Instead, they are likely part of Iran's efforts "to assess whether key assets — such as limited stocks of highly enriched uranium — survived the strikes," said Andrea Stricker, who studies Iran for the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which has been sanctioned by Tehran.
 
GLOBAL BRIEF
 
RUSSIAN TANKERS IN THE NORTH SEA
 
At least eight tankers sanctioned for transporting illegal Russian oil exports are currently moving through the English Channel, despite the UK government saying disrupting the so-called “shadow fleet” is a priority.
 
Since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has used hundreds of ageing tankers with obscured ownership - known as the shadow fleet - to evade sanctions on oil exports.
The UK government has pledged to take new "assertive actions" against shadow fleet vessels and the BBC understands officials have received legal advice that the tankers can be boarded and seized.
 
But that authority has yet to be used and on Friday morning ship-tracking site MarineTraffic showed eight tankers sanctioned by the UK are currently moving through the Channel. A further four tankers appear to be heading towards the passage from the North Sea.
 
**NOTE: Some of the tankers - such as Kusto, a 21-year-old crude oil carrier currently sailing south of the Isle of Wight - have made repeated voyages through the Channel over the past year.
 
The Kusto is listed on the tracking site MarineTraffic as having picked up its cargo at the Russian Baltic port of Ust-Luga 10 days ago.
 
NIGER AIRPORT ATTACK
 
**Niger Accuses France, Benin and Cote d'Ivoire of Sponsoring Airport Attack**
 
Niger's military ruler, Abdourahamane Tiani, has accused the presidents of France, Benin and Cote d'Ivoire of sponsoring an attack on Niamey international airport. Armed men on motorcycles attacked Diori Hamani International Airport, outside Niger's capital Niamey, shortly before midnight on Wednesday.The defence ministry said four members of the security forces were injured, 20 attackers were killed and 11 people were arrested during what security sources described as a terrorist attack.State television said one of the attackers killed was a French national, without providing evidence.
 
After visiting the air base, Tiani thanked Russia for helping repel the attack."We commend all the defence and security forces, as well as Russian partners who defended their security sector with professionalism," he said on state radio. He accused French President Emmanuel Macron, Benin's President Patrice Talon and Cote d'Ivoire's President Alassane Ouattara of backing the attackers. "We remind the sponsors of these mercenaries, notably Emmanuel Macron, Patrice Talon and Alassane Ouattara: we've heard them bark, they should be ready to hear us roar," he said.
 
Analysts said the attackers may have been trying to destroy military drones stationed at the base. Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at Germany's Konrad Adenauer Foundation, said drones had become central to the conflict between armies and jihadist groups."Drones have become a game changer for both sides, army and jihadists, so the attackers wanted to eliminate the latest Turkish arms acquired by Niger recently.The attackers may also have been drawn to a shipment of uranium that has been stuck at the airport amid legal and diplomatic disputes with France, being Niger a major producer of uranium.
 
**NOTE: Niger embraces Russia for uranium production and no longer cooperated with France.
 
LEBANON
 
**Reports: Hezbollah detains Lebanese security personnel seeking to inspect suspicious cargo**
 
Hezbollah prevented Lebanese authorities in Beirut from inspecting two suspicious vehicles allegedly carrying weapons until after the group diverted and emptied their contents, according to several Lebanese media reports. The incident reportedly occurred on January 23 in the Tayouneh neighborhood, a major traffic junction straddling the political-sectarian fault line between the Lebanese capital’s Hezbollah-dominated southern Shiite suburbs and its predominantly Christian neighborhoods.
These reports undermine recent claims by the Lebanese government that Hezbollah’s disarmament is well underway. According to MTV Lebanon and Beirut Time, two Lebanese media outlets with an anti-Hezbollah orientation, a patrol belonging to the Internal Security Forces (ISF) Judicial Police Unit’s Office for Combating International Theft Crimes became suspicious after observing two unmarked Toyota freight trucks with tinted windows parked for some time opposite the Lebanese Armed Forces barracks at Tayouneh Junction. The patrol, having obtained authorization from Lebanese authorities, approached the two vehicles, intending to detain and inspect them. Quoting unnamed “security officials,” Al Jadeed, a TV station sometimes sympathetic to Hezbollah, claimed the vehicles were two Toyota sedans, not trucks.
 
BALOCHISTAN
 
**41 militants killed in Pakistan military raids in the country’s southwest** - Pakistan’s security forces have raided two militant hideouts in the country’s southwest, killing 41 insurgents in separate gunbattles, the military said Friday. The first raid left 30 insurgents dead in Panjgur district in Balochistan province, according to a military statement. It said that 11 more militants were killed in a second operation in Harnai district in Balochistan.
 
**NOTE We at GZB/Gathering Storm Analysts group, use open-source intelligence, (OSINT) satellite imagery, (IMINT) fact-checking and data analysis to help report complex stories. We try an include SAT photos, maps and relevant graphics as often as possible.
 
EU ECONOMIC UPDATE
 
Gross domestic product in the European Union grew 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2025 relative to the previous quarter, demonstrating resilience in the face of immense challenges, including trade disputes with the U.S. and fierce competition from China. Denmark saw the highest rate of growth, driven by its pharmaceutical industry.
However, growth across the Continent was again highly uneven. While less economically developed countries surged ahead (in Poland, for example, household consumption and rising consumer sentiment fueled increases in GDP and employment), key European heavyweights remain in limbo. In Germany, the EU’s traditional economic engine, unemployment reached a 12-year high, and political instability in France is also leaving its mark on growth. Additionally, Europe’s shift away from cheaper Russian energy has left it dependent on a limited number of costlier alternatives.
 
GZB INFOCUS: What’s Worrying Billionaires the Most in 2026?
 
Key Takeaways:
 
• Trade tensions, geopolitics/conflict, and policy uncertainty top the list of risks worrying billionaires in 2026.
 
• Regional concerns vary, with tariffs dominating in Asia-Pacific and inflation and conflict leading fears in the Americas.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be prepared to respond and recover to any scenario.
 
No one is coming. It’s up to us.

 
—END REPORT