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Title: February 5, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 5 FEBRUARY 2026
 
MALI
 
**JNIM Maintains Pressure as Bamako and Washington Discuss Improved Cooperation
**
The Malian state remains in a tenuous position. The closing stages of last year saw JNIM apply unprecedented pressure on the government by attacking fuel imports, mines, manufacturing facilities, and other assets vital to the national economy.
President Assimi Goita has described as “hybrid, shifting, insidious” warfare on the economic front. JNIM fighters ambushed a large fuel convoy travelling on 29 January. According to reports, at least several dozen tankers were looted and destroyed in the attack. JNIM later claimed that two soldiers were killed; however, the perpetrators also allegedly executed 15 blindfolded truck drivers at point-blank range.
 
LOW COST DRONES
 
**Defense Department launches low-cost attack drone program **- The Pentagon has launched the first phase of its Drone Dominance Program, selecting 25 small technology and drone firms to compete to rapidly field large numbers of low cost one way attack drones. Beginning Feb. 18, military operators will evaluate systems at Fort Benning, with roughly $150 million in prototype orders expected. The initiative reflects Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s push to acquire affordable drones at speed and scale, reducing reliance on expensive munitions. The program aims to deliver hundreds of thousands of drones by 2027, drawing lessons from Ukraine’s extensive use of such systems and emphasizing rapid iteration driven by operational users.
 
VENEZUELA & CHINA
 
**Venezuela Assures China Its Investments Are Secure After Maduro’s Capture **
 
Venezuela’s ambassador to Beijing, Remigio Ceballos, pledged that Chinese trade and energy investments remain safe despite last month’s U.S. military raid that ousted former president Nicolás Maduro. Speaking in Beijing, Ceballos dismissed reports that Washington would dictate pricing for Venezuelan oil sold to China, insisting Caracas will set prices independently. He described the U.S. assault as “a warning to the entire world” but said cooperation with China continues across all sectors through an established bilateral commission. Beijing has condemned the U.S. action, while President Xi Jinping reaffirmed support for Latin American sovereignty during talks with Uruguay’s leader.
 
URUGUAY & CHINA
 
**Uruguay’s President Deepens Ties with China Despite Trump’s Warnings**
 
Uruguayan President Yamandú Orsi met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing on Tuesday, signing a dozen cooperation agreements in trade, science, and technology despite U.S. pressure to limit Chinese influence in Latin America. Xi called for a “multipolar world” and deeper strategic cooperation, while Orsi said Uruguay seeks “active international engagement.” The visit, accompanied by a 150-member delegation, makes Orsi the first Latin American leader to visit China since U.S. forces captured Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro. Analysts said the trip signals Uruguay’s refusal to be deterred by Washington as it strengthens ties with its top export market.
 
BOLIVIA
 
**Bolivia’s New Leader Launches ‘Capitalism for All’ Reforms to End Socialist Era **
 
Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz unveiled sweeping economic reforms to attract foreign investment and reverse nearly two decades of socialist policy. His “capitalism for all” program includes new oil, gas, and mining laws offering 50-50 risk-sharing with investors and a review of opaque lithium deals signed with China and Russia. Paz eliminated costly fuel subsidies, cut taxes, and raised the minimum wage, stabilizing the fiscal deficit and easing protests. Western nations and development banks have welcomed his shift toward market liberalization as Bolivia rebuilds ties with Washington and seeks to revive its resource-driven economy.
 
POLAND
 
**Poland detains defense ministry employee on suspicion of spying for Russia **
 
Polish authorities have detained a civilian employee of the Ministry of National Defense on suspicion of espionage linked to Russian and Belarusian intelligence services. The 60-year-old suspect worked in the ministry’s strategy and planning department and had access to sensitive defense and military modernization documents. He was arrested at the defense ministry headquarters in Warsaw, with searches conducted at his office and home. Prosecutors have charged him with spying, citing extensive evidence. The case underscores Poland’s growing concerns over Russian hybrid warfare, as officials report a rise in espionage, sabotage and cyber operations since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
 
ESTONIA
 
**Estonia detains ship heading for Russia suspected of smuggling **
 
Estonia has detained a Bahamian-flagged container ship in its internal waters on suspicion of smuggling, according to the Estonian Tax and Customs Board. The vessel, Baltic Spirit, was boarded by a police special unit and placed under national supervision for a customs inspection. Authorities said there were grounds to believe the ship may have been involved in smuggling linked to Ecuador. The refrigerated container ship was en route from Ecuador to St. Petersburg and is not part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” nor subject to EU sanctions. On Wednesday, it was anchored near Tallinn after arriving from Colombia.
 
DAESH/IS IN THE SAHEL
 
**Islamic State in the Sahel and the Dangers of Continued Regional Upheaval**
 
The Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for last week’s coordinated attack on Diori Hamani International Airport and the adjacent Air Base 101 in Niamey, Niger’s capital, marking one of the most high-profile attacks for IS-affiliates in the Sahel region. Evidence from the attack footage indicates the potential presence of militants from other IS affiliates, including from Islamic State – West Africa Province (ISWAP). IS-Sahel Province’s demonstrated ability to coordinate across affiliates, strike hardened targets, and sustain follow-up operations raises concerns about the group’s growing operational potential. While in the past Washington kept its distance from the regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, under the Trump administration, a shift appears to be underway, with the United States willing to engage with Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey.
 
LIBYA
 
**Iranian Navy Activity:**
 
Iran conducted two probing operations against the US Navy in the Persian Gulf, likely designed to test US Navy defensive reactions and demonstrate Iran’s ability to threaten US forces and assets. A probing action seeks to test the strength, disposition, and reactions of an opposing force. These two incidents may be the beginning of an Iranian maritime escalation that seeks to deter a US strike by demonstrating Iran’s capability to challenge US naval activity.
 
IRAN’S PROXIES
 
**Iran's Network Of Proxies 'Activated' As Possible War With US Looms**
 
Iran views a potential conflict with the United States as an existential threat, unlike the war in June, said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. That means Tehran is "ready to go all in and use whatever capacity it has, in terms of its own military capabilities, and at the same time the asymmetric capacity of the axis of resistance" to ensure its survival, said Azizi. There are already signs that Iran's allies in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen are preparing for war in the event of a US attack on Tehran.
 
VIET NAM
 
**An internal document shows the Vietnamese military preparing for a possible American war**
 
A year after Vietnam elevated its relations with Washington to the highest diplomatic level, an internal document shows its military was taking steps to prepare for a possible American “war of aggression” and considered the United States a “belligerent” power, according to a report released Tuesday. More than just exposing Hanoi’s duality in approach toward the U.S., the document confirms a deep-seated fear of external forces fomenting an uprising against the Communist leadership in a so-called “color revolution,” like the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine, or the 1986 Yellow Revolution in the Philippines. Other internal documents that The 88 Project, a human rights organization focused on human rights abuses in Vietnam, cited in its analysis point to similar concerns over U.S. motives in Vietnam.
 
HIZBUL MUJAHIDEEN LEADER DEAD
 
**Founding Hizbul Mujahideen commander dies in Islamabad, spotlight on ISI’s terror haven**  
 
Pakistan’s state-sponsored terror organisation Hizbul Mujahideen has suffered a significant setback with the death of its founding member and senior terrorist commander Qaiser Ahmed Mir, alias Mohammad Iqbal, in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad. According to sources, the veteran Hizbul terrorist died after a prolonged battle with cancer. He had been living in Islamabad’s Tarlai Kalan area for nearly two decades after fleeing India. Qaiser Ahmed Mir was among the founding members of Hizbul Mujahideen when the outfit was formed in April 1990. Between 1990 and 2008, he remained active in the Kashmir Valley and emerged as a top Hizbul commander in Pulwama, Shopian and Rajpora. Security sources attribute to him a key role in targeted violence and the massacre of Kashmiri Pandits during the peak years of insurgency. After escaping to Pakistan, Mir was tasked with overseeing terrorist training operations in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province.
 
AFGHANISTAN
 
**Is Afghanistan a Strategic Blind Spot for the West?**
 
Since the disastrous U.S. withdrawal in August 2021 and the ensuing Taliban takeover of the country, Afghanistan has remained a strategic blind spot for Washington and for the West more broadly. With no U.S. presence in Afghanistan, there are limited opportunities for intelligence collection, especially human intelligence (HUMINT).
 
There are still concerns within the counterterrorism community that Afghanistan could once again emerge as a destination for foreign fighters. There is no shortage of foreign policy challenges for the Trump administration—Venezuela, Gaza, Ukraine—yet keeping tabs on developments in Afghanistan should not be a task merely relegated to the intelligence community.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 

—END REPORT