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Title: October 13, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 13 OCTOBER 2025

MIDDLE EAST SITREP

Key Takeaways:

• Hamas-Israel Ceasefire: Hamas and Israel have continued to implement the October 9 ceasefire agreement. Hamas released all 20 living hostages and the bodies of four deceased hostages, and Israel released at least 1,700 Palestinian prisoners on October 13. The ceasefire agreement does not address key outstanding issues between Hamas and Israel, such as Hamas’ disarmament, a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and future governance in the strip.

• Iranian Threats to Close the Strait of Hormuz: Senior Iranian officials have continued to threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz, likely to try to deter the United States and its allies from enforcing UNSC Resolution 1929 and sanctions on Iranian oil exports. UNSC Resolution 1929 calls on UN member states to “inspect any [Iranian] vessel on their territory suspected of carrying prohibited cargo, including banned conventional arms or sensitive nuclear or missile items.”

ISRAEL - GAZA WAR

Hostages come home. Hamas has released the last 20 living Israeli hostages held in Gaza as part of the first phase of a ceasefire deal. On social media, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said his country’s primary task after their release is to destroy all remaining Hamas tunnels in Gaza. Over the weekend, the United States began deploying 200 troops to Israel to establish a coordination center to monitor the agreement's implementation, though they are not expected to enter Gaza. They will participate in transportation, planning, logistics, security and engineering and work alongside representatives of partner countries. In addition, Israel’s military chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, together with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, commander of U.S. Central Command Adm. Brad Cooper, the U.S. president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and other Israeli generals, conducted a “field tour” in Gaza. Elsewhere, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he was planning to visit Gaza.

MEETING IN JORDAN

Key component. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair met in Jordan on Sunday with Palestinian Authority Vice President Hussein al-Sheikh to discuss postwar governance of Gaza. Blair had been proposed as a possible member of an international “board of peace” to manage the situation there after the ceasefire’s adoption. In a statement, al-Sheikh said the PA was willing to work with Blair, as well as U.S. President Donald Trump and other partners, on consolidating the ceasefire.

AFGHANISTAN & PAKISTAN

Border fighting. Armed clashes erupted on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border over the weekend. The Taliban government in Kabul said it had carried out a “retaliatory operation” in response to Pakistan’s airstrikes last week on targets in Afghanistan. A Taliban spokesperson said at least 58 Pakistani soldiers were killed in the border fighting. However, according to the Pakistani military, 23 of its soldiers were killed, while more than 200 Taliban and affiliated militants were left dead. Taliban outposts, camps, headquarters and support networks were also damaged. The Taliban foreign minister said Kabul had achieved its military objectives and hostilities were temporarily suspended.

MADAGASCAR COUP

Upheaval. Madagascar’s president, Andry Rajoelina, has reportedly fled the country after alleging on Sunday that an attempted coup was underway. His claim came after members of an elite army unit threw their support behind youth-led anti-government protests, saying they would command national security operations and coordinate all branches of the armed forces from their base on the outskirts of the capital, Antananarivo. The president is due to address the nation later Monday from an undisclosed location. The protests that started in late September erupted over nationwide power and water outages and later grew to include demands for the government’s resignation.

SYRIA & TURKEY

Close ties. Syria’s defense minister, foreign minister and intelligence chief held talks in Ankara with their Turkish counterparts. They discussed bilateral cooperation, counterterrorism operations, border security, joint personnel training and regional stability. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said following the meeting that his country did not consider Syria’s security to be separate from Turkey’s own.

CASPIAN CORRIDOR

Transport talks. Representatives of the governments of Azerbaijan, Iran and Russia held talks in Baku on expanding their logistics networks. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk said that this year, more than 176,000 vehicles have carried cargo along the International North-South Transport Corridor, which stretches across all three countries and beyond into Iran and India.

RUSSIA’S WORKFORCE DEFICIT

Worker recruitment. The Kremlin is stepping up efforts to attract migrant workers from India and North Korea amid Russia’s severe labor shortages. According to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, the number of Indian citizens entering Russia for employment increased from 813 in 2020 to 17,700 in 2025. Nearly a third of Russia's total quota of visas for foreign specialists has been allocated to Indian citizens. Relatedly, India’s ambassador to Moscow announced that his country will soon open a consulate general in the Russian city of Kazan.

CHINA & THE PHILIPPINES

South China Sea dispute. The Philippines’ Maritime Council accused the Chinese coast guard of deploying water cannons and ramming a Philippine vessel near the Philippine-occupied Thitu Island, part of the disputed Spratly archipelago. The Chinese coast guard, on the other hand, said two Philippine government vessels “illegally entered” waters near Sandy Cay, a coral reef in the northern Thitu Reefs, and that one vessel “dangerously approached” a Chinese coast guard ship, leading to a collision.

GZB INFOCUS: Visualizing the Biggest Exporters in the World

Key Takeaways:

• China accounted for 14.6% of global exports of goods in 2024, the highest share overall.

• Vietnam, Hong Kong SAR, and France each saw double-digit export growth, while exports contracted the sharpest in Australia.

Outside of America, the world is buying China’s goods more than ever.

Despite being a primary target of U.S. tariffs, China has deepened trade ties across Africa, Southeast Asia, and Europe in 2025. Yet as China cements its position as a global trading powerhouse, America is increasingly focusing on becoming more self-sufficient.

This graphic shows the top 30 biggest exporters in the world, based on data from the World Trade Organization.

China grew its exports by 6% in 2024 to reach $3.6 trillion, further widening its lead over America.

To look at it another way, 36% of global export containers hold Chinese goods. Not only that, China is on track to see record shipments in 2025 across Latin America, Africa, and Asia.

The U.S. remains the world’s second-largest exporter, with $2.1 trillion in exports last year. Between January and July 2025, Canada and Mexico accounted for roughly 30% of American export demand.

Ranking in third is Germany, with exports shrinking 1% over the year to $1.7 trillion, while the Netherlands followed with $921 billion in exports.

Meanwhile, Vietnam, Hong Kong SAR, and France saw the fastest export growth—rising 14%, 12%, and 11%, respectively. In particular, Vietnam’s surge was fueled by strong shipments of oil, coffee, and rice amid shifting global supply chains.

Pray.

Train.

Stay informed.

Build resilient communities.

—END REPORT