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Title: September 30, 2025

GLOBAL BRIEF

RUSSIA, TURKEY & THE U.S.

Oil and gas trade. In response to a question about U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand that Turkey stop purchasing oil and gas from Russia, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at a press conference over the weekend that Moscow would respect Ankara’s decision. Turkey is a major buyer of Russian energy; in 2024, Russian imports accounted for 66 percent of Turkey’s crude oil and petroleum product consumption, and 41 percent of its natural gas consumption. Meanwhile, on Saturday, Iraq resumed oil exports from the Kurdistan region to Turkey after a two-year hiatus over a legal dispute.

U.S. CRUISE MISSILES TO UKRAINE

U.S.-Ukraine cooperation. Russian authorities are closely studying statements from U.S. officials regarding the possible transfer of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Monday. He made the statement following U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s comment that Washington was considering sending Kyiv the weapons. Peskov also said that the transfer wouldn’t change Ukraine’s situation on the front lines but that it was a “very serious” suggestion. On Sunday, U.S. special envoy Keith Kellogg also confirmed that Washington has not tried to prevent Ukraine from striking deep into Russian territory.

NORTH KOREA & CHINA

In agreement. North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui and her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, held their first one-on-one meeting in China on Sunday. They reached “complete consensus” on international and regional issues, according to North Korean media. They also agreed to strengthen strategic communication, deepen exchanges and cooperation, and jointly oppose hegemonism. It was Choe’s second visit to the country in less than a month, after attending China’s Victory Day Parade on Sept. 3.

EU SANCTIONS UPTICK ON IRAN

More sanctions. The European Council has reinstated sanctions against Iran that had been suspended under the 2015 nuclear deal. Its decision followed the U.N. Security Council’s vote earlier this month to resume sanctions after the U.K., Germany and France triggered the “snapback” mechanism in the decadelong agreement, accusing Tehran of noncompliance. The sanctions include travel bans for individuals, asset freezes and restrictions on the trade, financial and transport sectors. They will also affect the sale or supply of key equipment used in the energy sector.

KREMLIN & HANOI COMRADES

Russia-Vietnam ties. A Russian delegation, led by parliamentary speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, held talks in Hanoi with Vietnamese President Luong Cuong, Prime Minister Pham Minh Tinh and Speaker of the National Assembly Tran Thanh Manh. The Vietnamese officials described the visit as giving “new impetus to expanding cooperation between Vietnam and Russia in all areas.” The two countries plan to sign an agreement by the end of the year on Russia’s construction of a nuclear power plant in Vietnam. Russia’s Ministry of Energy said it expected state-owned oil and gas company Zarubezhneft to begin work on new projects in Vietnam in January.

GZB ECONOMIC INTSUM: EU

Eurostat has revised upward its estimate of eurozone economic growth for the second quarter of 2025. Growth remained modest, driven by rising consumer spending in both the eurozone and the EU as a whole, as well as higher government spending. Among EU member states, the highest gross domestic product growth rates were recorded in Denmark, Romania, Croatia and Poland, supported by a variety of instruments, from industrial growth to investments from EU funds.

However, despite the improved sentiment, the stabilization and slight growth may not last. The main risk to the European economy remains the threat of a slowdown in internal economic activity, and much will depend on demand and the extent to which EU funds are used. Germany’s slowdown amid weak external demand is a major factor in slower overall growth.

Another challenge will be the impact of U.S. tariffs, particularly on pharmaceuticals and trucks, which will affect major manufacturers. For example, Denmark led the EU in growth in the second quarter, but its central bank recently lowered its GDP forecasts for 2025-27, citing the negative effect of U.S. tariffs.

GZB INFOCUS: Global Currencies Mapped.

The U.S. dollar is enduring its weakest year in more than two decades, down over 10% so far in 2025. Most major currencies have gained against it, underscoring how shifts in trade, policy, and investor sentiment are reshaping global FX markets.

How we measured it:

We tracked year-to-date (YTD) performance against the U.S. dollar, from Jan 1 to Sept 19, 2025. Each currency’s daily value is measured relative to its Jan 1 exchange rate. Positive values indicate appreciation, negative values depreciation.

What the numbers show:

• Strong gainers: Brazilian real (+15.4%), Swiss franc (+12.4%), euro (+11.9%), and Mexican peso (+11.6%) posted double-digit rises.

• Moderate gainers: Rand (+8.1%), pound (+7.1%), yen (+6.2%), and others added solid strength.

• h: The rupee (-2.7%), rupiah (-2.5%), and Turkish lira (-16.9%) weakened against the dollar.

Why it matters:

• Stronger currencies ease import costs, benefiting consumers and lowering inflation pressures.

• Weaker currencies can supportexporters by making goods more competitive abroad but raise import bills — especially sensitive for energy-reliant economies.

Note: YTD performance is calculated against the U.S. dollar using daily exchange rates, with Jan 1, 2025 as base and Sept 19, 2025 as the latest value. Source: Market exchange rates via Google Finance, Jan 1–Sept 19, 2025.

GZB INFOCUS PART II:

Global Consumer Inflation

Key Takeaways:

• Since 2020, cumulative inflation in Argentina has jumped by 2,164%, vastly higher than any other country worldwide.

• Türkiye (464%) and Egypt (116%) also had severe increases, driven from unconventional monetary policies and currency devaluation.

• Consumer prices are up more than 20% in developed economies like the U.S. (23%) and Germany (22%), while Japan (8%) and other Asian economies saw much lower increases.

How much have prices increased since 2020, and which countries have felt the largest impact?

While inflation rates are generally subsiding, it’s easy to forget previous bouts of inflation are already baked into prices around the world. For example, in European countries like Hungary and Poland, prices are at least 40% higher than before the pandemic, while prices in Brazil are up 30%.

This graphic shows the cumulative change in global inflation rates since 2020, based on data from Deutsche Bank.

Global Inflation Over Five Years (from 2020 when I founded GRAY ZONE BRIEF.)

With inflation soaring to its highest level since the 1970s in recent years, we show the total change across 48 countries as of June 2025.

Inflation was 2,614% in Argentina, with the country facing its seventh sovereign debt default (https://www.visualcapitalist.com/largest-sovereign-debt-defaults-in-modern-history/) in 2020, leading to a money printing spree to boost the economy, pushing up prices.

Meanwhile, in Europe, countries including Hungary (52%), Russia (44%), Poland (42%), and Czechia (39%) have experienced steep price increases fueled by higher energy costs due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

This impact was less pronounced in the UK, where prices have increased by 24%.

Across Europe, Switzerland saw the least impact, with cumulative inflation rising just 6% given the strength of the Swiss franc. Going further, inflation turned negative in May of this year, prompting its central bank to cut interest rates to 0%.

In America, prices are up 23% since 2020, with electricity prices up more than twice the rate of inflation over the past year, and beef up 16% since August 2024. While inflation is gradually treading lower from post-pandemic peaks, key corners of the market continue to add pressure to living costs for Americans.

Pray.

Train.

Stay informed.

Build resilient communities.

—END REPORT