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Title: January 29.2026
GRAY ZONE BRIEF 29 JANUARY 2026
U.S. PIVOT TO CHINA
A year into Trump presidency, 'pivot
to China' gathers pace** - China has leveraged President Trump’s return to an
“America First” agenda to expand trade ties beyond the United States, posting a
record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025. As U.S. tariffs and diplomatic
frictions strained Washington’s relations with allies, Beijing deepened
engagement with partners including Canada, India, and the European Union,
boosting exports to Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. Analysts say
China has positioned itself as a more predictable trade partner, supporting
steady growth despite domestic economic headwinds. However, foreign policy
experts caution that lingering concerns over China’s trade practices and
coercive behavior limit how far this diplomatic opening can go.
CHINA MILITARIZING
ANTELOPE REEF
China Appears Set on Militarizing
Another Reef in the South China Sea** - Satellite imagery indicates China is
preparing to reclaim land at Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands, signaling
plans for another military base in the hotly contested South China Sea. The
Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative reports dredging began in late 2025, with
new infrastructure and berthing access visible this month. Analysts say the
base could host radar, helipads, and naval vessels, expanding Beijing’s network
of fortified outposts. Separately, China has coordinated massive “floating
barriers” of fishing boats near Taiwan, demonstrating how its maritime militia
could support blockade or combat operations in future conflicts.
U.S. DEPLOYMENTS TO THE
MIDDLE EAST
The United States is deploying jet
fighters, air defenses, and an air carrier with thousands of troops to the
Middle East, in a move that has heightened tensions with Iran and increased the
likelihood of military action, experts say.** - Experts say the military
buildup along with planned US naval exercises in the region increases the
pressure on Iran and provides more offensive military options if Washington
chooses to attack Iran. “This can be a message to Iran that we’re ready, our
capabilities are in place,” Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington
Institute for Near East Policy, told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda. Nadimi added that
the chances of US strikes on Iran were “very high,” pointing to the “overtly
aggressive” military buildup in the Persian Gulf. The aircraft carrier USS
Abraham Lincoln and three accompanying destroyers are headed toward the Middle
East carrying over 5,000 troops. US Central Command has said that F-15E Strike
Eagle fighter jets were deployed to the region. Meanwhile, the US Air Force
said on January 25 that it was set to launch a multiday military exercise
across the Middle East “to demonstrate the ability to deploy, disperse, and
sustain combat airpower” in the region.
FRENCH CARRIER STRIKE
GROUP
The French Navy (Marine Nationale)
Carrier Strike Group (CSG) set sail on 27 January to take part in the exercise
ORION 26. ORION 26 is a joint and combined high intensity warfare exercise set
to take place in the Atlantic.
The French Navy did not officially
disclose the exact composition of the CSG for ORION 26, but Toulon-based
photographer and regular contributor to Naval News, Hervé Dermoune, witnessed
the following vessels departing the naval base this morning:
• Aircraft carrier Charles de
Gaulle (R91),
• Air Defense FREMM
Frigate Alsace (D652),
• Horizon type air defense
destroyer Chevalier Paul (D621),
• Horizon type air defense destroyer
(Italian Navy) Andrea Doria (D553)
• and the new replenishment vessel
(known as BRF) Jacques Chevallier (A725).
The focus for the escort of the CSG
during ORION 26 seems to be on air defense, with three dedicated air defender
vessels, which is somewhat unusual and noteworthy. As usual, a nuclear-powered
attack submarine (SSN) is likely part of the CSG as well.
According to a French Navy statement,
ORION 26 will take place over the next few weeks in the Atlantic zone, “a
strategic area of maneuver for the defense of European interests”. This
exercise will bring together French forces alongside their allies and regional
partners.
The statement further reads “ORION 26
aims to test the French armed forces’ ability to conduct high-intensity
operations in a joint and combined environment, encompassing all types of
conflict zones and environments. The CSG’s participation in ORION 26 will test
its operational capabilities within a complex deployment. This deployment
contributes to the preparation of French armed forces and to the support of a
large-scale operational maneuver conducted on the national territory and in its
immediate vicinity”.
The French Navy also highlighted the
important of the CSG, calling it a unique strategic asset in Europe: “Capable
of long-range and sustained deployments, the carrier strike group is able to
carry out a variety of missions, including control of maritime and air spaces
and conducting deep strikes, even at very long ranges. Mobile, versatile,
resilient, and constantly adapting to threats, the carrier strike group
guarantees France, in cooperation with its allies, an essential autonomous
capability for assessment and action.”
Overall, ORION 26 will involve,
• For the army:
◦ 3 combined armed brigades
◦ 1 CSG
◦ 50 aircraft
In addition, 24 countries are
participating to ORION 26.
**NOTE: ORION 26 scenario
In Europe, Mercury, an expansionist
country, seeks to destabilize its neighbor Arnland in order to maintain its
influence in the region and prevent Arnland’s accession to the European Union.
During 2025, Mercury intensified its hybrid operations and increased its
support for militias operating within Arnland. At the request of this ally, on
January 6, 2026, France assumed leadership of the ORION coalition to ensure its
defense and preserve the European balance.
ORION 26 embodies this rise in power,
from invisible warfare to high-intensity confrontation. In a context where
engagement in a high-intensity conflict could become a reality, ORION 26
responds to the need to intensify and toughen the level of preparedness of the
French armed forces.
IRANIAN DRILLS IN STRAIT
OF HORMUZ
**Iran to hold live-fire drills in
Strait of Hormuz with US armada in Middle East**
Iran will conduct live-fire military
drills next week in the Strait of Hormuz after President Donald Trump announced
a U.S. armada was on its way to the region amid escalating tensions with
Tehran. The exercises will be carried out by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps’ naval forces, Iranian state media reported Thursday. The announcement
came one day after Trump said a large naval force, led by the USS Abraham
Lincoln carrier strike group, was heading toward Iran. Iran warned last week
that it would respond "with everything we have" to any new U.S.
military attack, accusing Washington and its allies of exploiting recent unrest
to push the region toward a wider war. "As Iranians grieve their loved
ones and rebuild what has been destroyed, another threat looms: the final
failure of diplomacy. Unlike the restraint Iran showed in June 2025, our
powerful armed forces have no qualms about firing back with everything we have
if we come under renewed attack," Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi
said.
IRANIAN EXECUTION
**Iran executes man accused of spying
for Israel** - Iran on Jan. 28 executed a man convicted of spying for Israel.
The judiciary’s Mizan news outlet said Hamidreza Sabet Esmaeilipour was hanged
after being found guilty of cooperating with Israel’s intelligence service,
Mossad, including transferring classified information. Iranian authorities said
the sentence followed legal procedures and was upheld by the Supreme Court.
Executions linked to alleged Israeli espionage have increased since last year,
particularly after direct clashes involving Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iranian
nuclear facilities, reflecting the deepening shadow conflict between the two
adversaries.
CHINA’S AEROSPACE
INDUSTRY
**Fujian Delong Aviation Technology
Co., Ltd.** - A China-based aerospace company controlled by Chen Congming
(Congming Chen); has been the parent company of China-based Xiamen Limbach
Aircraft Engine Co., Ltd., which according to the European Union is suspected
of sharing engine designs with entities producing Iranian unmanned aerial
vehicles (UAVs). Develops and manufactures aviation equipment; parent company
of Germany-based Limbach Flugmotoren GmbH, whose products include the L275 and
L550 series of engines. According to the European Union, Xiamen Limbach
Aircraft Engine Co. is suspected of sharing the L550 engine design with
entities involved in producing engines for Shahed-136 UAVs, an Iranian-designed
UAV developed by Shahed Aviation Industries for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force; according to the European Union, L550 engines
were supplied by Xiamen Limbach to a Russian militay-industrial producer for
manufacturing Garpiya-3 (G-3) long-range attack drones for the Russian military.
UKRAINIAN DRONES
**Ukraine says more than 80% of enemy
targets now destroyed by drones **- Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said drones now
account for over 80% of enemy targets destroyed, reflecting a major
technological shift in the nearly five-year war with Russia. Ukrainian forces
recorded more than 819,000 confirmed drone hits in 2025, with roughly a third
targeting enemy personnel. President Volodymyr Zelensky said a points-based
system rewards verified strikes through the Army of Drones program, allowing
units to redeem equipment via an online marketplace. Defense Minister Mykhailo
Fedorov said the system offers real battlefield data for decision-making and
will expand to include air defense and sniper performance.
EU MILITARY POWER
DEFICIT
EU heavyweights deepen rift with Rutte
over Europe’s military power** - Senior European Union officials warned on Jan.
28 that Europe must build its own military strength to adapt to a more
dangerous global environment and a less dependable United States, sharpening
differences with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. European Defence
Commissioner Andrius Kubilius and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas argued
that the continent must assume greater responsibility for its own defense and
develop a stronger European pillar within NATO. They said U.S. policy shifts
represent a structural change, requiring higher defense spending, closer
coordination, and reduced reliance on American military, intelligence, and
logistics support.
SWITZERLAND TAX HIKES TO
BOOST DEFENSE SPENDING
**Switzerland to hike sales tax to
boost defense spending **- Switzerland plans to significantly increase defense
and security spending, committing an additional 31 billion Swiss francs ($40.4
billion) from 2028 as it responds to a worsening global security environment.
The government said the funds would be financed by a 0.8 percentage point
increase in sales tax for 10 years, and would raise defense spending to roughly
1.3–1.5% of GDP. The Federal Council cited growing risks from geopolitical
tensions, cyber threats, and espionage. Defense Minister Martin Pfister said
the focus would be on closing critical capability gaps, including countering
drones, strengthening cyber defenses, and improving intelligence. The plan
still requires parliamentary approval and could face a public referendum.
CHINA FILLING THE VACCUM
China’s Hidden Hand: Covert Deals,
Saudi Channels, and the New Anti‑US Axis** - US‑aligned intelligence
assessments indicate that the August 15, 2021 US withdrawal from Afghanistan
triggered a rapid and far‑reaching recalibration of geopolitical alignments
across the Middle East, South Asia, and the wider Eurasian system. While
Washington’s abrupt disengagement signaled a reduced willingness to sustain
long-term military commitments, it simultaneously created a strategic vacuum
that China moved to exploit with exceptional speed, discipline, and strategic
clarity.
Within weeks of the withdrawal,
China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS), supported by Russian intelligence
services, initiated a coordinated campaign to reposition China as the primary
external power shaping regional security, diplomacy, and economic architecture.
Beijing’s actions were not opportunistic—they reflected a pre‑planned, multi‑theater
strategy designed to expand Chinese influence, protect the Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI), and construct a durable counter‑US alignment. Since late
2021, China has led or co‑led more than two dozen covert intelligence meetings
with Russia and an additional series of engagements with Iran, North Korea, and
regional partners. Beijing hosted the majority of intelligence‑focused
sessions, underscoring its role as the central coordinator of this emerging
bloc. Crucially, intelligence reporting indicates that China also engaged
covertly with the House of Saud, conducting discreet diplomatic and
intelligence exchanges.
GRAY ZONE BRIEF 29
JANUARY 2026
The U.S. Army will deploy an
Abrams-equipped detachment as part of its normal rotational forces in Romania,
marking a significant strengthening of the armoured warfare capabilities in the
country bordering the current war zone in Ukraine. Romanian Chief of the
Defence Staff Gheorghita Vlad referred to this as an enhancement of the
“quality and lethality” of U.S. rotational forces in the country, highlighting
that there will be be no significant changes to the number of U.S. Army
personnel in the country. The decision to deploy the tanks signals that the
United States Armed Forces are prioritising combat power over personnel
numbers, at a time when significant reductions to the numbers of personnel in
Europe are being planned. Romania remains on the frontlines of any potential
conflict between NATO and Russia in Europe, with its position on the Black Sea,
and within range of tactical missile and rocket artillery strikes from Crimea,
making the NATO presence there highly significant.
**NOTE: In early December the U.S.
Army deployed M1A2 Abrams tanks to participate in live-fire exercise in
Lithuania, during which the tanks demonstrated the engagement capabilities of
their 120mm main guns. The exercises occurred less then ten days after U.S.
Army M1A2 Abrams tank conducted intensive training at the Bemowo Piskie
Training Area in neighbouring Poland under the Forward Land Forces expansion
exercise, for which tanks were delivered from multiple locations across Poland
to take part. Despite the tank’s central position in U.S. Army operational
planning, its viability for high intensity combat has increasingly been
questioned. By early June 2025 the Ukrainian Army was assessed to
have lost 87% of the Abrams tanks it had been supplied, despite prior
Western expectations that the vehicles could represent a game changer in the
theatre. The U.S. Army subsequently cancelled plans for further
modernisation of the M1A2 to deeply revise the Abrams’ design, instead
financing the development of the M1E3 Abrams next generation variant. The first
images of the new variant were released in mid-January 2026.
NEXT GEN ABRAHMS
The M1A3 is the most revolutionary new
tank developed in the Western world since the 1970s, with analysts have widely
assessed that the obsolescence of conventional Western tank designs seen in the
Ukrainian theatre was a primary factor prompting the particularly radical
redesign. The new variant has prioritised many of the same capabilities as the
new Chinese Type 100 main battle tank which was confirmed in September to have
entered service. It remains uncertain on what timeline the M1E3 will be brought
into service, whether it will be affordable in significant numbers, and whether
the tanks will eventually be deployed in the European theatre.
Like the United States, Russia has
also fallen far behind China in the capabilities of its main battle tanks, and
while its T-90M tank introduced into service April 2020 represented a
significant improvement over prior designs, plans to bring the much more
complex and revolutionary T-14 tank into serial production and widespread
service appear to have been postponed indefinitely. The T-14 program had
promised vastly improved firepower, mobility, situational awareness and crew
protection levels, and initially caused significant concerns in the Western
world before the Russian Defence Ministry appeared to abandon plans for
development in the early 2020s.
GZB INFOCUS: U.S.
MONSTER COPPER MINE
When people hear “monster mine,” they
usually imagine gold rush stories or piles of shiny treasure. But this one
isn’t about sparkle or jewelry. It’s about something far less glamorous, yet
far more important. While most eyes stay fixed on gold and silver, this massive
mine quietly supplies a metal that modern life can’t function without. It
doesn’t shine, it doesn’t trend, and yet it sits at the center of a growing
global obsession that few people talk about.
The invisible material behind everyday
progress
The modern world feels light and
digital. You tap a screen, a result appears, and everything feels instant. But
behind that smooth experience are physical systems working nonstop. a hidden
physical layer supports every search, message, and calculation.
Electric grids are expanding, cities
are upgrading their infrastructure, and clean energy projects are spreading
fast. None of this works unless electricity can move safely and efficiently,
again and again, without failure.
Solar panels are only “half the truth”
— a homeowner has a solution to generate energy all the time, using a simple
setup (https://www.ecoportal.net/en/homeowner-swaps-everything-for-wind/16625/)
Solar and wind power are “over” —
they’re creating “living power” and opening the door to something surreal
Portugal has an “energy secret” — they produce massive power with something
nobody believed in, but it’s brilliant
When demand starts growing faster than
expected
For a long time, supply and demand
stayed in balance. Mines produced enough, industries planned ahead, and there
was little reason to worry. Then new technologies arrived all at once. pressure
building quietly began to show.
At the same time, mining became
harder. New projects take years to approve, ore quality has declined, and
investment slowed. Supply didn’t collapse, but it stopped growing fast enough
to keep up.
Why shortages are no longer just a
theory.
Experts now warn this isn’t a
temporary issue. Forecasts suggest a real shortage forming within the next
decade. a supply gap formingcould affect far more than just mining companies.
Power transmission, renewable energy,
and large infrastructure projects all compete for the same material. Finding
alternatives sounds simple, but replacing it at scale is anything but easy.
The “monster mine” behind the digital
boom
This is where the monster mine from
the title comes into focus. The explosion of artificial intelligence, massive
computing systems, and endless data centers has pushed demand into overdrive.
Tools like AI assistants run on huge server farms that consume enormous amounts
of electricity, and electricity needs one thing above all else: huge amounts of
copper.
Near Salt Lake City, Utah, sits the
Kennecott Mine, one of the largest open-pit copper mines on Earth. It has been
operating for over 100 years and has already produced more than 19 million tons
of copper. Its pit is so massive it can be seen from space. In a world suddenly
desperate for copper, this monster mine looks less like history and more like a
strategic lifeline.
Why this metal suddenly matters to
everyone
The future is often described as
smart, clean, and digital. But that future still depends on what comes out of
the ground. a fragile dependency ties cutting-edge technology to very old
materials.
The Kennecott Mine shows how rare
long-lasting, high-volume copper sources have become. It also highlights a
growing risk. If supply cannot keep up with demand, copper could become one of
the biggest limits on global progress.
In a world chasing smarter machines
and cleaner power, the most wanted resource isn’t shiny or famous. It’s the
quiet metal everyone needs, and not everyone can get enough of it.
Pray.
Train.
Stay informed.
—END REPORT
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