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Title: March 8, 2026

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 8 MARCH 2026
 
DOMESTIC SITREP
 
CURRENT TERROR THREAT TO U.S. HOMELAND
 
As of March 2026, the U.S. remains in a heightened threat environment, though officials state there are currently no specific, imminent, and credible threats to a single location.
The Department of Homeland Security describes a complex landscape where the risk of terrorism is "high" and expected to remain so through the year.
 
Key Threat Drivers
 
• Foreign Influence & Retaliation: Tensions from the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict have significantly increased the risk of retaliatory violence. Authorities have warned of potential "lone-wolf" attacks and cyberattacks following recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian interests.
 
• Lone Offenders: The primary threat of mass casualty violence stems from individuals or small groups—both domestic and foreign-inspired—who radicalize online. These actors often mobilize quickly with little to no direct coordination from larger organizations.
 
• Ideological Targets: Potential targets of violence include:
Public gatherings and mass events (e.g., the upcoming 2026 World Cup).
Faith-based institutions, particularly Jewish and Israeli facilities.
Critical infrastructure and government personnel.
 
• Cyber Threats: State actors from China, Russia, and Iran continue to target U.S. networks and critical infrastructure to disrupt services or conduct espionage.
• Homeland Security
 
Domestic & Border Security Developments
 
• Immigration Concerns: Recent assessments highlight concerns over individuals on the terrorist watchlist attempting to enter the country, with reports noting an increase in such encounters.
• Transnational Crime: Federal agencies have launched intensive operations, such as Operation Allied Corridor, to disrupt cartels and transnational gangs recently designated as foreign terrorist organizations.
• Domestic Extremism: Tensions surrounding sociopolitical issues and past election cycles continue to serve as potential catalysts for violence by domestic violent extremists.
• House Committee on Homeland Security (.gov)
How to Stay Informed
 
The government uses the National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) to communicate these risks. (When there isn’t a government shutdown.)
 
• Bulletins: Provide general information about a heightened threat environment.
• Alerts: Issued when there is specific, credible information about a terrorist threat.
 
GLOBAL SITREP
 
LITHUANIA
 
Lithuania says Russia is expanding military units on NATO borders: Russia is expanding military units at the border with NATO, giving them battle experience in Ukraine, and could use them as hubs in a conflict with NATO after the war, Lithuanian intelligence said on Friday in its annual assessment of security threats. If sanctions are removed, Russia would be ready for a "wide-scale military conflict" with NATO in six ​years' time, the intelligence assessment said.
 
**NOTE:** If Russia is facing personnel shortages in its armed forces due to the conflict in Ukraine, where is the expansion of these military units coming from?
 
***GZB Analysis:
 
In 2025 and 2026, Russia has significantly expanded its recruitment of foreign troops to offset heavy losses in Ukraine and avoid a politically unpopular mass mobilization of its own citizens. While "conscription" technically applies to Russian citizens, the government is using a mix of mercenary contracts, coercion, and allied deployments to bring in foreign personnel.
 
Primary Foreign Troop Groups (2025–2026)
 
• North Korean Forces: This is the most significant foreign military deployment. As of early 2026, approximately 11,000 to 15,000 North Korean troops are stationed in Russia, primarily in the Kursk region. Estimates suggest the total deployment could reach 30,000 to sustain offensive operations.
• Central Asian Recruits: Migrants from Central Asia (e.g., Uzbekistan, Tajikistan are a major target. Many are pressured into signing contracts to avoid prison sentences or are enticed by the promise of fast-tracked Russian citizenship.
• Global South Mercenaries: Russia has recruited fighters from over 120 countries, including:
 
Mali, Ghana, Nigeria and Senegal,
Asia & Middle East: Recruits from Nepal, India, Sri Lanka, Yemen
Latin America: Recruitment efforts are active in Cuba and other South American nations.
 
• Occupied Ukrainian Territories: In 2026, Russia plans to recruit roughly 67,000 personnel from occupied regions, including Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, often by forcing residents to take Russian passports and then conscripting them.
 
U.S. WEAPONS STOCKPILES
 
Replenishing stocks. The Pentagon is reportedly planning to request funds from Congress to replenish munitions used against Iran. Missiles for the Patriot and THAAD air defense systems will be prioritized, as well as Tomahawk cruise missiles. This comes as the Trump administration has been increasing pressure since early 2025 on defense contractors to ramp up production. According to an analysis by former Pentagon official Elaine McCusker, the first four days of hostilities with Iran cost the U.S. approximately $11 billion – about $5.7 billion of which was spent on interceptor missiles.
 
U.S. & SOUTH KOREA
 
Redeployment. Relatedly, the U.S. and South Korean militaries are in talks on redeploying some Patriot air defense systems based in South Korea to the Middle East, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said
 
FRANCE & LEBANON
 
French engagement. France’s army chief of staff, Gen. Fabien Mandon, is reportedly in Beirut to meet with top Lebanese military and political officials. According to the Intelligence Online outlet, his visit is a last-ditch attempt by the French government to prevent an Israeli deployment to southern Lebanon. France has also reportedly asked the governments of Italy and Greece to coordinate the transit of ships through the Red Sea. On Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with the prime ministers of both countries, which also agreed to coordinate military support for Cyprus.
 
UKRAINE HELPING U.S. TAKE DOWN IRANIAN DRONES
 
Ukrainian support. The U.S. requested Ukraine’s support in combating Iranian Shahed drones, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. Zelenskyy said he instructed Ukrainian specialists to “guarantee the required security.”
 
BASE HIT BY DRONE ON CYPRUS
 
Turkish concerns. Turkey’s vice president has warned against using military bases in Cyprus for operations in the Middle East. During a visit to breakaway northern Cyprus, Cevdet Yilmaz criticized the government of the Greek Cypriot south for “seeking a role for itself in major power rivalries” by allowing third countries access to bases on the island. He said this policy was putting lives at risk and posed a danger to all countries in the region. Last weekend, a British air base on the island was hit by a drone, which the Cypriot government suspected was fired by Hezbollah.
 
U.S. & VENEZUELA
 
A new era? The United States and Venezuela agreed to restore diplomatic and consular relations, two months after the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Caracas said it wanted to pursue a “new stage of constructive dialogue, based on mutual respect.” On Thursday, U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said the Venezuelan government would provide security guarantees to mining companies interested in investing in Venezuela. Shell Oil Co. signed several agreements with the Venezuelan government, covering both offshore and onshore natural gas production, following a meeting between Burgum and interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez.
 
SOUTH KOREA & UAE
 
Emergency supplies. South Korea will purchase more than 6 million barrels of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates as an emergency measure, the South Korean presidential chief of staff said amid concerns over rising energy prices. The government deemed the purchase necessary because 70 percent of South Korea’s crude supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran said had been shut.
 
RUSSIA & FINLAND
 
Nuclear planning. Russia will respond if Finland decides to host nuclear weapons on its territory, a Kremlin spokesperson said. Finnish leaders have proposed lifting restrictions so the country can fully participate in NATO’s nuclear planning, though President Alexander Stubb said there are currently no plans to deploy nuclear weapons in Finland.
 
JAPAN & CANADA
 
Closer ties. Japan and Canada made a strategic partnership agreement aimed at intensifying cooperation in defense, energy, trade and technology. The deal involves closer cooperation on international emergency response, joint coast guard exercises and tackling illegal fishing in the North Pacific.
 
GZB INFOCUS: Disrupted Oil Operations in the Persian Gulf
 
Iranian attacks on shipping and refineries could have persistent effects.
Though oil prices have surged since the start of fighting in the Middle East, investors are still hopeful that the war will resemble last year’s 12-day Israel-Iran war, with minimal impact on energy markets beyond the short term. It helps that oil supply has exceeded demand recently, helping to offset the risk of shortages. However, risks may be longer-lasting than experts currently imagine, even without a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran.
 
The disruption of maritime traffic through the strait is still the most serious challenge. Even if transit is still possible, the cost to insure a ship passing through the region has exploded, raising doubts about its economic viability. But Iranian missiles and drones have also targeted oil infrastructure in neighboring Arab countries, forcing refiners to temporarily suspend operations.
 
Pray.
 
Train.
 
Stay informed.
 
Be vigilant.
 
 
—END REPORT