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Title: November 14, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 14 NOVEMBER 2025

RUSSIAN SPY SHIP OFF HAWAII

**Russian spy ship detected just miles from Hawaii coastline prompts US Coast Guard response** - The U.S. Coast Guard announced on Thursday it detected a Russian military spy vessel operating near U.S. territorial waters on Oct. 29 and personnel are continuing to monitor the ship. Officials said the Vishnya-class intelligence ship was about approximately 15 nautical miles south of Oahu, prompting a response by the Coast Guard HC-130 Hercules from Air Station Barbers Point and the Coast Guard Cutter William Hart (WPC 1134). The Coast Guard responded to the Russian Federation Navy Auxiliary General Intelligence ship, Kareliya, by conducting a safe and professional overflight and transiting near the vessel, according to a news release.

U.S. DESIGNATES EU ANTIFA AS FOREIGN TERROR ORG

The US state department has announced that it will designate four European self-described anti-fascist groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, as the Trump administration broadens its campaign against what it portrays as an international wave of leftist violence.

In a public statement on Thursday, the state department said it would designate Antifa Ost in Germany, the Italy based International Revolutionary Front, and two organisations in Greece – Armed Proletarian Justice and Revolutionary Class Self Defense – as “Specially Designated Global Terrorists … conspiring to undermine the foundations of Western Civilization through their brutal attacks”.

The designation was the first time that “antifa” groups had been deemed a foreign terrorist threat, allowing law enforcement to use more aggressive techniques to oppose them. It also could extend to those deemed leftist supporters of the groups in the United States, allowing federal authorities to use similar surveillance and financial oversight tools against US citizens — controversial, but warranted under the current political landscape.

“Groups affiliated with this movement ascribe to revolutionary anarchist or Marxist ideologies, including anti-Americanism, ‘anti-capitalism’ and anti-Christianity, using these to incite and justify violent assaults domestically and overseas,” the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said in a statement.

The administration’s press release described incidents including the use of homemade explosive devices, shootings and hammer attacks as the cause for the listing. The designation would make financial transactions with the organizations or its members a criminal act in the United States.

Antifa and other leftist organizations have been responsible for violent confrontations in the United States in the cities of Los Angeles, Chicago and Portland, following the assassination of the rightwing youth political organiser Charlie Kirk. The focus on antifa was first codified in a presidential executive action from September that declared “antifa” a “domestic terrorist organization”.

Why It Matters:

These designations will allow agencies to go after funding/funders of Antifa — the head of the snake, which is perhaps the single most important aspect of defanging leftist revolutionaries attempting to undermine our Constitutional Republic and our Democratic processes.

UKRAINE

Money for Kyiv. The European Union on Thursday transferred nearly 6 billion euros ($7 billion) in financial assistance to Ukraine. Some 4.1 billion euros came from the ERA (Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration) Loans for Ukraine initiative, funded by profits generated through frozen Russian assets, while 1.8 billion euros came from the Ukraine Facility program.

CYBERSECURITY

**Critical vulnerabilities in Cisco, Citrix devices exploited by ‘advanced threat actor’ **- An advanced threat actor exploited critical vulnerabilities in Citrix and Cisco components as zero-days to deploy custom malware. Amazon’s threat intelligence team revealed that attempts to exploit the Citrix vulnerability were detected prior to public disclosure. The flaws allowed attackers to gain pre-auth admin access to Cisco Identity Service Engine, deploying a web shell named ‘IdentityAuditAction’ to intercept requests and execute code. Cisco issued warnings as these vulnerabilities were actively exploited, recommending immediate application of security updates for both CVEs and limiting access to edge devices.

CYBERSECURITY IN THE UK

**New British cybersecurity law aims to bolster defenses of infrastructure entities** - The British government introduced the Cyber Security and Resilience Bill to enhance defenses against disruptive cyberattacks. The bill, which aims to protect critical sectors like hospitals, energy supplies, and transportation from hostile states and criminal activities, would cover about 1,000 firms providing services to organizations like the National Health Service and would impose new penalties for violations. The bill follows a series of high-profile cyberattacks, including incidents that severely impacted UK businesses and healthcare services.

AFRICA

**Jihadist takeover of Mali is far-fetched, foreign minister says** - Malian foreign minister Abdoulaye Diop on Wednesday dismissed warnings that jihadist forces could seize the capital, Bamako, calling such claims exaggerated. His remarks came amid international concern over a fuel blockade imposed by al-Qaeda-linked group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which has disrupted supplies and forced school closures. Western nations, including the U.S., France, and Britain, have urged their citizens to leave Mali, while the African Union has called for a coordinated international response. Diop said Mali’s security forces remain in control and accused foreign critics of misunderstanding local realities. He added that relations with Washington were improving under the Trump administration.

RUSSIA IN AFRICA

Russia's African connections. Russia’s deputy defense minister, Yunus-bek Yevkurov, held talks with Mali’s junta leader during a visit to the West African nation. They discussed strengthening bilateral security cooperation. Yevkurov also met with Mali’s defense minister to discuss security and military-technical cooperation. Burkina Faso’s defense minister also attended the talks.

RUSSIA & BURMA

Training at sea. Russia and Myanmar are holding joint naval exercises in the Andaman Sea. The Russian and Burmese navies will conduct command and control training; practice search, detection and tracking of enemy submarines; and carry out combat exercises involving artillery and torpedo firing.

MIDDLE EAST SITREP

SYRIA AS THE KEY

Early this week, U.S. President Donald Trump welcomed Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa at the White House, signaling Washington’s intention to recast Syria as the cornerstone of a new Middle Eastern security framework. At a time when postwar Gaza is grabbing most of the headlines, the meeting reflected Washington’s belief that stabilizing Syria is essential to restoring the region’s fractured balance of power. It also underscored Trump’s conviction that local actors, even former adversaries of the U.S., must bear the primary burden for keeping the peace.

After the meeting, al-Sharaa declared on Fox News that Syria “is no longer looked at as a security threat” but is now “a geopolitical ally.” He dismissed the possibility of direct negotiations with Israel, but in a nod to the Trump administration’s approach, he suggested that U.S. mediation might eventually make them possible. Trump, in turn, portrayed al-Sharaa as a pragmatic leader who could make Syria “very successful.” Underscoring his reliance on personal diplomacy to advance rapprochement among rival states, Trump said al-Sharaa “gets along very well” with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (whom Trump called “a great leader”) and concluded, “We’re working also with Israel on getting along with Syria, getting along with everybody.”

For Washington, the Levant is the critical corridor connecting the eastern Mediterranean to the Gulf, and the place where Turkish, Israeli and Arab interests intersect. The Trump administration’s wager is that a reconstructed Syrian state, aligned loosely with the U.S. and its local partners, can contain Iran’s influence and anchor a new security framework in the Middle East. This localized burden-sharing model would enable U.S. retrenchment without creating a vacuum. The difficulty, however, lies in managing the overlapping ambitions of those very partners.

Among them, Turkey wields the greatest leverage. It was Turkish backing, after all, that enabled al-Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham insurgency to topple the Assad regime last December – an indirect but consequential outcome of Israel’s defeat of Hezbollah, which broke Iran’s decades-long hold on the Levant. Thus, when Trump brought up Erdogan during his meeting with al-Sharaa, he revealed how deeply Washington’s strategy now depends on Ankara. In essence, the U.S. has delegated the task of building a coherent Syrian polity to Turkey, effectively tying itself to Turkey’s regional strategy. It’s a risky play, especially since Ankara’s ambitions extend beyond stabilization to restoring its own regional primacy. But the pool of reliable partners is limited, and the U.S. views Turkey as indispensable.

All things considered, the U.S. would like to partner with a state where Arabs constitute a plurality. The obvious candidate is Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude producer and a central actor in the Arab and Muslim worlds. Yet despite its vast wealth, the kingdom lacks the military capacity and strategic agility to uphold regional stability on its own. Its reliance since World War II on American protection and regional policing underscores that reality.

Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia remains an essential pillar in any Middle East strategy, and it has taken steps to address its limitations. Shortly after Washington expressed its desire for local actors to manage the Middle East, Saudi Arabia finalized its Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement with Pakistan, its longtime ally. The pact gives Riyadh access to Islamabad’s military expertise, offsetting its weaknesses – a critical step if it hopes to prevent Ankara from dominating the region. For the U.S., the Saudi-Pakistani pact is precisely the sort of arrangement it wants to see as evidence that regional actors are internalizing the burden-sharing model, thereby reducing America’s financial and strategic exposure and freeing up resources to focus on the challenges posed by China and other global risks.

For the model to work, however, the U.S. must reconcile the divergent priorities of its key partners – nowhere more so than between Turkey and Israel. The Trump administration has invested considerable effort in steering both toward a functional modus vivendi. Earlier this month, Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey and special envoy to the Levant, expressed optimism at a security conference in Bahrain that Turkey and Israel could establish a workable equilibrium despite their tensions.

For Israel, the prospect of sharing a border with a Turkish-backed Sunni regime in Damascus is alarming. Similar concerns shape Israel’s opposition to Turkish participation in the International Stabilization Force planned for postwar Gaza. While the U.S. views Ankara’s ties to Hamas as potentially useful in neutralizing the group as a fighting force, Israel sees them as a liability. Fundamentally, although the U.S. and Israel agree on countering Iranian influence in Syria and Gaza, they sharply differ over Turkey’s role; the U.S. views Turkey as a tool of containment against Iran, whereas Israel perceives it as a new vector of risk.

If Syria is the keystone of the Trump administration’s Middle East strategy, Gaza is its proving ground. The immediate priority is operationalizing the ISF, which will require at least eight states with competing interests to work in concert, under U.S. guidance. There is no precedent for a large-scale Arab and Muslim joint task force stabilizing an insecure environment without active U.S. involvement, making Gaza a litmus test of the region’s capacity to assume even temporary security responsibilities.

The obstacles are formidable: disarming Hamas, training a new Palestinian security apparatus and supporting the creation of a functional governance structure. The greatest challenge, however, will be executing these objectives while coordinating with Israel, whose relationship with many ISF participants is either fraught or nonexistent. Yet the alternative – continued Israeli occupation of Gaza – carries even higher political, economic and security costs.

Success in Gaza would do more than stabilize a war-torn enclave. It would validate Washington’s strategy, strengthen U.S. leverage and potentially create a model for regional burden-sharing. Failure, by contrast, would expose the limits of regional stakeholder cooperation and reinforce skepticism about the United States’ ability to withdraw without destabilizing the region.

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—END REPORT