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Title: November 18, 2025

GRAY ONE BRIEF 18 NOVEMBER 2025

NIGERIA & THE GENOCIDE UPON CHRISTIANS

**What to know about abductions of schoolchildren in Nigeria **- The latest mass abduction of Nigerian schoolchildren reflects an ongoing security challenge in the country’s north, where both jihadist groups and criminal bandits operate. Boko Haram and its Islamic State–aligned offshoot continue to recruit vulnerable youth and mount renewed attacks after years of internal splits. Armed bandit groups, driven largely by ransom motives rather than ideology, continue to target schools across the northwest and north-central regions. Their operations increasingly overlap with jihadist networks. Despite military operations, insurgents have overrun outposts and attacked civilians, straining Nigeria’s security forces. The U.S. has approved new arms sales, while President Trump has threatened broader punitive action.

U.S. POSITION ON NIGERIA

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz called the recent killings of Christians in Nigeria “genocide wearing the mask of chaos."

Waltz made the remarks Tuesday at an event hosted by the United States Mission to the United Nations that spotlighted religious violence and the killings of Christians in the most populous African nation.

"There is a body of evidence, and you are going to hear that from our experts today that paints a very grim picture of disproportionate suffering among Christians, where, again, families are torn apart, clergy is repeatedly assassinated, and entire congregations, church congregations," he said. "Folks, we have an entire faith that is being erased. One bullet at a time, one torched Bible at a time."

Rapper Nicki Minaj, who was born in Trinidad and Tobago, also spoke at the event, saying she wanted to speak out against injustice and stand up for people who are persecuted for their beliefs.

"In Nigeria, Christians are being targeted driven from their homes and killed. Churches have been burned. Families have been torn apart and entire communities live in fear constantly, simply because of how they pray," she told attendees.

"Sadly, this problem is not only a growing problem in Nigeria, but also in so many other countries across the world, and it demands urgent action," Minaj said. "And I want to be clear, protecting Christians in Nigeria is not about taking sides or dividing people. It is about uniting humanity."

Minaj, who has been a vocal supporter of the Trump administration's actions to combat the persecution of Christians in Nigeria, seemed to distance herself from politics. Addressing her fans directly, who she calls "Barbz," she once again said that she was not "taking sides."

Waltz also spoke, calling the killings of Christians in Nigeria genocide wearing the mask of chaos."

“There is a body of evidence, and you are going to hear that from our experts today that paints a very grim picture of disproportionate suffering among Christians, where, again, families are torn apart, clergy is repeatedly assassinated, and entire congregations, church congregations," he said. "Folks, we have an entire faith that is being erased. One bullet at a time, one torched Bible at a time."

The event featuring Waltz and Minaj came after Trump threatened in a November Truth Social post to send U.S. troops "guns-a-blazing" into the most populous country in Africa to "completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities."

The president also threatened to stop all aid and assistance if the violence continued.

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu responded to Trump’s threat, writing on social media that his administration has worked with Christian and Muslim leaders to address security challenges affecting citizens across all faiths and regions.

"The characterisation of Nigeria as religiously intolerant does not reflect our national reality, nor does it take into consideration the consistent and sincere efforts of the government to safeguard freedom of religion and beliefs for all Nigerians," he wrote on X.

"Religious freedom and tolerance have been a core tenet of our collective identity and shall always remain so. Nigeria opposes religious persecution and does not encourage it."

Open Doors, an international Christian organization that supports persecuted believers, said attacks are most common in the northern, Muslim-majority states of Nigeria but have started spreading into the Middle Belt and farther south.

MIDDLE EAST SITREP

IRAN’S DROUGHT UPDATE

In recent days, prolonged water cuts across Tehran have created widespread panic among the Iranian capital’s 10 million residents. Last week, GZB reported that after years of drought and reduced rainfall and snowfall, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that Tehran’s residents would have to ration water—and eventually evacuate the capital—if there was no rain by late November. They’ve had years of warning, but Iran’s rulers have done nothing to resolve an increasingly existential water crisis.

A few experts have been warning about the impending doom for decades. Most Tehranis, insulated from the hardships long faced by poorer, peripheral provinces, are only now feeling what other Iranians have endured for years.

The Cambridge Study Abstract:

Abstract

Iran is currently experiencing serious water problems. Frequent droughts coupled with over-abstraction of surface and groundwater through a large network of hydraulic infrastructure and deep wells have escalated the nation’s water situation to a critical level. This is evidenced by drying lakes, rivers and wetlands, declining groundwater levels, land subsidence, water quality degradation, soil erosion, desertification and more frequent dust storms.

This paper overviews the major drivers of Iran’s water problems. It is argued that while climatic changes and economic sanctions are commonly blamed as the main drivers of water problems, Iran is mainly suffering from a socio-economic drought—i.e. “water bankruptcy,” where water demand exceeds the natural water supply. In theory, this problem can be resolved by re-establishing the balance between water supply and demand through developing additional sources of water supply and implementing aggressive water demand reduction plans.

Nevertheless, the current structure of the water governance system in Iran and the absence of a comprehensive understanding of the root causes of the problem leave minimal hope of developing sustainable solutions to Iran’s unprecedented water problems.

ISW Key Takeaways:

• Iraqi Elections: The Shia Coordination Framework announced on November 17 that it formed the “largest parliamentary bloc” with 157 seats. This bloc includes Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Coalition. It is unclear whether Sudani would remain in the framework if the framework does not agree to him serving a second term as prime minister.

• Iranian-backed Iraqi Militia Performance in Iraqi Elections: Political parties tied to Iranian-backed Iraqi militias performed better in the November 2025 Iraqi parliamentary elections than they did in the 2021 elections, likely due to several reasons, including Iraqi Shia nationalist cleric Muqtada al Sadr’s boycott of the elections and the reinstatement of the pre-2021 electoral system.

• Iranian Nuclear and Missile Program:Some elements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps are reportedly pressuring Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to accelerate the reconstruction of Iran’s nuclear program and withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Iran also reportedly intends to allocate a large portion of its military budget to the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles and multi-warhead delivery systems, according to an EU source.

GLOBAL SITREP

UKRAINE

Ukraine update. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will travel to Turkey on Wednesday to push for renewed negotiations on ending the war with Russia. U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff will also attend, but according to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, no Russian representatives will participate in the talks. Moscow also has no plans to speak with Witkoff or Turkish officials following the meeting. Separately, Zelenskyy signed a letter of intent in Paris on Monday to acquire up to 100 French Rafale fighter jets. Delivery of the planes is expected to be completed by 2035. Meanwhile, top Kremlin aide Kirill Dmitriev said Russia and the United States have discussed another prisoner exchange. Speaking to Axios, Dmitriev said he spoke with Witkoff about humanitarian issues including a swap during a visit to the United States last month.

RUSSIA & SYRIA

Russian engagement. A delegation of Russian and Syrian military officials inspected areas of southwestern Syria for the first time since the fall of the Assad regime. This comes a day after the two countries held defense talks in Moscow. The visit is reportedly part of Moscow’s proposal to resume its military police patrols in southern Syria along the border with Israel – which ended after Bashar Assad’s ouster nearly a year ago. Negotiations are underway between Moscow and Damascus on the matter.

CHINA IN RUSSIA

Leaders gather. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is holding a heads of government summit in Moscow. Issues on the agenda include strengthening trade, economic and investment cooperation. Belarus’ deputy foreign minister said his country planned to raise the issue of an independent financial institution for the organization.

U.S. & AZERBAIJANI FORUM

U.S.-Azerbaijani relations. A delegation of Azerbaijani officials will meet this week in Washington with U.S. lawmakers, representatives of the U.S. State Department and members of the U.S.-Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce. In Baku, meanwhile, U.S. and Azerbaijani think tanks are participating in a joint forum. On the U.S. side, representatives of the Atlantic Council, the New Lines Institute, the Hudson Institute, the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and others will attend.

SOUTH KOREA

Eliminating coal. South Korea announced plans to phase out all coal power by 2040 at the COP30 climate talks in Brazil. The country operates 62 coal-fired plants, which provide a third of its electricity. The move would have implications for Australia, which exports more than $1.5 billion worth of coal to Seoul every year.

GERMANY & CHINA

Easing tensions. Germany is ready to strengthen cooperation with China in the financial sector and promote enhanced bilateral relations, German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said during economic talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Beijing on Monday. Klingbeil reportedly also raised German concerns over Chinese overcapacity in sectors such as steel, solar panels and electric vehicles, as well as export controls on rare earths.

U.S. IN THE CAUCASUS

Talks on the Caucasus. A senior adviser from the U.S. State Department in Georgia for talks on Tbilisi's role in the so-called Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He will hold meetings with representatives of Georgia’s Foreign Ministry and government, as well as international financial institutions.

SOUTH KOREA

Talking tech. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung met with UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi on Monday. They signed seven memorandums of understanding on AI cooperation, space exploration, biotechnology, health care, intellectual property and advanced technology in nuclear energy. Lee is on a 10-day tour of the Middle East and Africa, focused on defense and AI.

GZB INFOCUS: Which Countries Hold the Most Gold Reserves?

Key Takeaways:

• The U.S. and Europe hold over 60% of global gold reserves as of 2024.

• China added 331 tonnes between 2019 and 2024, lifting its total to 2,280 tonnes.

• India, Poland, and Turkey saw major increases from 2019 to 2024.

• Poland’s holdings jumped from 2019 to 2024, reaching 448 tonnes.

Gold remains one of the world’s most enduring stores of value, and central banks continue to accumulate it at record levels. The buying also cause the metal to hit record high prices in 2025.

This map highlights which countries hold the most gold in their official reserves. The data for this visualization comes from BullionVault, which tracks global central bank gold holdings. Figures represent official gold reserves in tonnes as of 2024.

Collectively, the U.S. and Europe control more than 60% of all reported reserves.

The United States Dominates Global Gold Holdings.

The United States remains the world’s largest holder of gold by a wide margin, with 8,133.5 tonnes, a figure virtually unchanged for decades. Most of this gold is stored at Fort Knox and the New York Federal Reserve.

At current prices (https://www.mining.com/live-chart/gold/), America’s reserves are worth over $1 trillion, serving as a strategic asset that underpins confidence in the U.S. dollar.

Europe’s Long-Standing Reserves Remain Strong.

Europe’s major economies—Germany (3,352 tonnes), Italy (2,452 tonnes), and France (2,437 tonnes)—collectively hold nearly 8,200 tonnes, rivaling the U.S. total.

These large holdings date back to the postwar Bretton Woods era, when gold underpinned the international monetary system.

China’s gold reserves have surged from 1,948 tonnes in 2019 to 2,280 tonnes in 2024, as Beijing diversifies away from U.S. Treasury holdings and seeks to internationalize the yuan.

India, now the world’s fifth-largest economy, holds 876 tonnes.

Other emerging markets, including Turkey (595 tonnes) and Poland (448 tonnes), have sharply increased gold holdings to hedge against inflation, currency volatility, and geopolitical uncertainty.

Beyond the Top 10: Smaller Nations Build Resilience

Countries like Uzbekistan (383 tonnes) and Saudi Arabia (323 tonnes) also feature prominently, highlighting the growing appeal of gold among energy and resource-rich economies. In addition, developing nations such as Thailand, Singapore, and Kazakhstan are quietly increasing their reserves as a safeguard against global shocks.

Pray.

Train.

Stay informed.

Build resilient communities.

—END REPORT