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Title: November 3, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 3 NOVEMBER 2025

U.S. TROOPS TO DEPLOY TO NIGERIA? 

US President Donald Trump has ordered the military to prepare for action in Nigeria to tackle Islamist militant groups, accusing the government of failing to protect Christians.

Trump did not give specifics or say which killings he was referring to, but proof of a genocidal war against Nigeria's Christians have been circulating in OSINT, NGO think tanks and Christian Networks that I personally belong to — and I have included reports in GRAY ZONE BRIEF for the past several years — citing Raymond Ibrahim’s and TRAC’s research quite often, as well as Newspapers and media outlets in Nigeria and throughout Africa. 

An advisor to Nigeria's president told the BBC that any military action against the jihadist groups should be carried out together.

Nigeria's President Bola Tinubu has insisted there is religious tolerance in the country and said the security challenges were affecting people "across faiths and regions".

Trump wrote in a social media post on Saturday that he had instructed the US Department of War to prepare for "possible action.” 

He warned that he might send the military into Nigeria "guns-a-blazing" unless the Nigerian government intervened, and said that all aid to what he called "the now disgraced country" would be cut.

Trump added: "If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just like the terrorist thugs attack our CHERISHED Christians!"

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth replied to the post by writing: "Yes sir.

"The Department of War is preparing for action. Either the Nigerian Government protects Christians, or we will kill the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities."

Jihadist groups such as Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province have wrought havoc in north-eastern Nigeria for more than a decade, killing tens of thousands of people — often, Christians. 

In central Nigeria, there are also frequent clashes between mostly Muslim herders and farming groups, who are often Christian, over access to water and pasture.

Schoolgirls have been kidnapped en masse, Churches have been attacked, burned and their parishioners massacred by Jihadis. 

However, we cannot miss the fact that all across the Sahel, Russian influence has pushed out the West, particularly the French, but also U.S. forces in neighboring Niger. 

Afrika Corps, formerly Wagner Group now provides security for many of the gold and diamond mines as well as rare earths. China and Russia have both developed strong spheres of influence across Africa and have become economically, the new colonizers that they have essentially replaced to exploit cheap labor and most importantly rare earths, precious metals, minerals, and other resources. 

Both Russia and China have built new military bases on the continent and this may be a shit across the bow to initiate a concerted effort to push back against Russian and Chinese influence. We shall see. 

LEBANON 

The United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFIL) was tasked prior to Oct. 7 with aiding the Lebanese Army in disarming Hezbollah and from establishing military outposts on the border with Israel. Israeli officials have long argued UNIFIL has failed miserably.

When asked about the allegations that Hezbollah is rearming and reconstructing its command centers, Tilak Pokharel, a UNIFIL spokesperson, told media outlets that UNIFIL operates from Litani river to the Blue Line, a demarcation area that covers 10% of Lebanon’s territory. He said "We have not seen any build-up, and we have been working every day and supporting them, the Lebanese Armed Forces. Until earlier this week, we found 360 weapons and ammunition caches since November 27, 2025."

Media outlets also reported that a French unit of UNIFIL shot down an Israeli drone this week. The UNIFIL spokesman said, "We don’t normally name the unit involved."

Matthew Levitt, a leading scholar on Hezbollah from the Washington Institute, states  that "Nobody should be surprised that Hezbollah is trying hard to rebuild its capabilities. And therefore nobody should be surprised that Israeli forces continue to strike Hezbollah forces, not only in the south but also in the Beqaa Valley. With a government in Beirut eager to constrain Hezbollah, the group is under pressure at home as well. Note the Lebanese Central Bank’s action against Al Qard al Hassan and other Hezbollah financial institutions in Lebanon is a telling example."

Walid Phares, an American academic expert on Hezbollah and Lebanon who has advised U.S. presidential candidates, has analyzed movements among Lebanese citizens to forge diplomatic relations with Israel.

He told Fox News Digital, "Recently, there has been a noticeable rise in statements from Lebanese politicians and social media influencers calling for the establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel and an end to the ongoing war."

He added, "Many Lebanese have witnessed Hezbollah’s defeat in its confrontation with Israel, dispelling the long-standing notion — promoted by Hezbollah — that it is invincible. Yet, despite this military setback, the militia in Lebanon shows no intention of relinquishing its weapons. 

Hezbollah remains determined to maintain control over Lebanon and suppress other communities. Moreover, the group continues to receive directives from the Islamic Republic of Iran to endure the current circumstances and prepare for future conflict.

"Consequently, an increasing number of Lebanese are calling for their government to initiate dialogue with Israeli leaders, hoping that such a step would prompt U.S. support to help Lebanon disarm Hezbollah."

A  U.S. State Department official stated that “The Government of Lebanon has made a courageous and historic decision to disarm Hezbollah, a task it has assigned to the Lebanese Armed Forces as the sole legitimately armed force in Lebanon.  We extend our full support for this decision.   The United States will continue to partner with the Government of Lebanon to make sure that Lebanon is free,  prosperous and safe for all Lebanese people."

UK TRAIN TERROR ATTACK

Multiple people stabbed in UK train attack near Cambridge as police arrest 2 suspects

Two men were detained after an attack left at least 10 victims hospitalized. “Multiple" people were stabbed on a train in the United Kingdom on Saturday night, according to police.

The attack in Huntigdon, Cambridgeshire, happened before 8 p.m. local time and two men were arrested after 10 people were knifed, according to authorities.

"We were called at 7.39 p.m. with reports that multiple people had been stabbed on a train," the Cambridgeshire Constabulary wrote. "Armed officers attended and the train was stopped at Huntingdon, where two men were arrested. A number of people have been taken to hospital."

Huntingdon is roughly 19 miles northwest of Cambridge and around 75 miles north of London. Was is a terror attack? Hard to say as the EU and the UK have implemented a policy of not admitting or publicly acknowledging Jihadist terror attacks as they cannot admit publicly that laxed immigration policies are a failed system and forced multiculturalism doesn’t make a freer society, it worsens it. 

Here’s an eyewitness interview:

IRANIAN ADVANCED PERSISTENT THREAT GROUP APT-32 & APT-34 

"APT IRGC" is the name of a recently emerged threat actor or a persona used by a group, likely linked to Iran, that claimed to have leaked information regarding the Pegasus spyware. 

It is not a widely recognized designation for an established Iranian state-sponsored Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) group like APT34 (OilRig) or APT42, which are known to be affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). 

Key Details

            •          Claim of Leak: In July 2025, the "APT IRGC" persona posted messages claiming to have leaked data related to the Pegasus spyware, which is developed by the Israeli NSO Group. The legitimacy and source of the alleged leaked data are still under analysis by the cybersecurity community.

            •          Persona vs. Established Group:Cybersecurity researchers often note that Iranian state actors sometimes use "hacktivist" personas to confuse attribution. It's likely that "APT IRGC" is a new, or a new persona for an existing, Iranian-linked group rather than a formal APT designation used by intelligence agencies.

            •          Pegasus Context: Pegasus is a highly sophisticated mercenary spyware licensed by the NSO Group to government clients worldwide for tracking criminals and terrorists. It is primarily associated with surveillance by various national intelligence agencies, not specifically with Iranian APTs, which typically use different sets of custom tools.

            •          Iranian APTs and Surveillance:Established Iranian APT groups, such as APT42, are known for conducting surveillance operations against journalists, activists, and other individuals using various methods, including mobile spyware and social engineering, but the use of the specific Pegasus spyware by Iranian groups is not a documented fact. 

In summary, the name "APT IRGC Pegasus" refers to the alleged leak by a threat actor using the name "APT IRGC", not a known Iranian APT group that has been confirmed to operate the Pegasus spyware. 

Note: Be careful on social media, especially with friend requests — they could be Jenny Alexander — you know, the girl down the street who doesn’t wear a hijab (that’s Haram Bro!) but is from Tehran — but somehow gets to not cover her head in a country where that’s illegal — and she appears out of nowhere because she wants to be my friend on Instagram. Totally not an IRGC asset or a hacker, I’m sure she’s totally legit. 

تلاش خوبی بود! ممنون که نقش بازنده رو بازی کردی.

(Nice try! Thanks for playing loser.)

Pray.

Train.

Stay informed.

Build resilient communities.

—END REPORT