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Title: November 4, 2025 GRAY ZONE BRIEF 4 NOVEMBER 2025 ISLAMIC STATE IN SYRIA On 13 October 2025, suspected Islamic
State (IS) militants conducted an arson attack targeting a Syrian Democratic
Forces (SDF) oil tanker in Ayn Issa, Raqqa, marking the second such attack
within three days in the same province. Earlier, on 10 October 2025, IS gunmen
ambushed another SDF-operated oil tanker using machine guns on the road to
al-Manakher, near al-Karamah, roughly 30 km east of Raqqa city. These
consecutive incidents underscore the group’s renewed focus on energy
infrastructure, particularly targeting SDF-controlled logistics lines essential
for fuel distribution in northern Syria. Ayn Issa, strategically located along the
M4 highway, has long been a high-risk zone due to its proximity to major supply
routes and its symbolic importance as a former IS stronghold. The area’s
terrain and sparse security presence make it highly vulnerable to hit-and-run
attacks by IS motorcycle cells, a hallmark of the group’s asymmetric warfare
strategy. IS has repeatedly attacked Ayn Issa since its territorial defeat in
2019, with the last recorded assault in August 2025, when militants detonated
an IED targeting an SDF patrol vehicle. The persistence of such operations
indicates that IS maintains both freedom of movement and localised intelligence
networks in rural Raqqa, allowing it to strike logistical convoys with relative
ease. This latest incident must be understood
within IS’s broader oil warfare doctrine, which has evolved into a strategic
campaign to destabilise the post-caliphate economy in northeastern Syria. Since
July 2024, TRAC has recorded at least 87 oil-related attacks, including arson,
IEDs, and small-arms ambushes on tankers, pipelines, and refineries across
Raqqa, Deir Ezzor, and Hasakah. Although IS Central Command has not formally
branded this effort as a unified operation, the systematic pattern of targeting
oil assets strongly suggests a de facto campaign designed to undermine the
SDF’s financial autonomy. Oil revenue remains a critical source of funding for
both local governance and SDF counterterrorism operations; by sabotaging this
sector, IS aims to weaken local institutions, strain civilian livelihoods, and
reassert itself as a persistent insurgent threat. Moreover, the timing and tempo of these
attacks reflect IS’s broader post-territorial adaptation, moving from symbolic,
mass-casualty bombings to economically disruptive guerrilla tactics. These
operations are low-cost yet high-impact, serving propaganda purposes by
demonstrating operational reach and resilience despite intensified counter-IS
raids in Raqqa and Deir Ezzor. The choice of oil transport targets, rather than
heavily fortified installations, also highlights IS’s pragmatic approach:
hitting soft, high-value assets that erode public confidence in SDF control. 2 AQ TTP DIRTBAGS GET SMOKED The Deaths of Mufti Muzahim and Qari
Yasir On the evening of October 27th, 2025,
Al-Qaeda Senior Shura member and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Deputy Leader
Mufti Muzahim (see picture) aka Qari Amjad, and TTP commander and close Muzahim
aide Qari Yasir, were present at an event at the TTP’s Darul Hujra Wal Jihad, a
terrorist madrassa located in the Asmar district of Kunar Province,
Afghanistan. After departing, the two were tracked and
located from this location in Kunar as they traveled over the border into
Bajaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, en route to Dir district. They were
killed alongside two other TTP members in an ambush by Pakistan’s Military in
Bajaur over the evening of October 29th and into October 30th. Mufti Muzahim was a key architect behind
Al-Qaeda’s operational plot against the U.S. homeland, directly overseeing the
planning, preparation, and deployment of attackers intended for the operation.
His death is a massive win for America, and we thank those in the Pakistani
Military who put him on the X. Operation Details Mufti Muzahim, also known as Qari Amjad
(real name: Amjad Ali), was killed alongside TTP commander and close Muzahim
aide Qari Yasir and two other militants in an ambush conducted by Pakistani
forces in Bajaur district, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, during the night of October
28-29, 2025. According to intelligence reports,
Muzahim and Yasir had attended an event at the TTP’s Darul Hujra Wal Jihad
madrassa in Asmar district, Kunar Province, Afghanistan, on October 27. After
departing the facility, they were tracked as they crossed the border into
Pakistan’s Bajaur region, en route to Dir district, where they were
intercepted. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public
Relations (ISPR) stated (https://thebalochistanpost.net/2025/10/pakistan-and-ttp-confirm-death-of-senior-commander-in-bajaur/)that
forces detected the group’s infiltration attempt late Wednesday night and
“effectively engaged and thwarted” the militants’ border crossing. Strategic Global Significance The elimination of Mufti Muzahim
represents a critical win for both U.S. homeland security and international
counterterrorism efforts. U.S. security analyst Sarah Adams (https://www.linkedin.com/in/sarahadams/)
emphasized that Muzahim was (https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sarahadams_the-deaths-of-mufti-muzahim-and-qari-yasir-activity-7389865053254225920-jKJV?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAB6tHOwBONat0Kt5LAoWj-nzpMWPbQ1rymA)
“a key architect behind Al-Qaeda’s operational plot against the U.S. homeland,
directly overseeing the planning, preparation, and deployment of attackers
intended for the operation.” Designated as a global terrorist by the
United States in 2022, Muzahim was accused of orchestrating cross-border
attacks and terrorist operations. Pakistan had placed a 5 million rupee bounty
(https://www.satp.org/terrorism-update/four-terrorists-ttp-s-%E2%80%98second-in-command%E2%80%99-amjad-mazahim-with-five-million-bounty-killed-in-khyber-pakhtunkhwa)
on his head. Pak-Afghan relations expert and
Co-Founder and Chairman of South Asisa Times Salman Javed (https://www.linkedin.com/in/salman-javed-malik/)described
Muzahim as “the ideological architect” of TTP, comparing him to former Al-Qaeda
leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in terms of his influence. Operating an extensive
network from Kunar, Afghanistan, Muzahim oversaw TTP’s organizational
structure, recruitment operations, and militant formations. Aftermath and Regional Implications In an unusual development, Pakistani
security forces permitted (https://tribune.com.pk/story/2575326/fateha-khwani-for-slain-ttp-deputy-chief-continues-for-second-consecutive-day-in-dir)
an open funeral for Muzahim in his ancestral village of Mayar Jandool, Dir
district. Hundreds attended the funeral prayers, with condolence gatherings
continuing for multiple days, which is a departure from standard protocol
following the deaths of senior terrorist commanders. TTP responded to the killing of the
second-in-command to TTP chief Noor Wali Mehsud with a statement on social
media describing it as a “betrayal,” while Pakistani authorities characterized
it as the result of precise intelligence work. TTP spokesperson Muhammad
Khurasani confirmed the deaths while disputing Pakistan’s account that Muzahim
was killed attempting to cross the border. ITALY New biographies of jihadists under
investigation in Italy have been added to the Monitoring Jihadism Project (MjP) website: - Ahmed Taskour: he, his wife and
children left for Iraq in December 2014. There has been no news of any of them
since. Link: - Mahmoud Jrad: Syrian affiliated with
Jabhat al-Nusra. Arrested in 2016 as part of Operation Fitna by the Genoa
Public Prosecutor's Office. Link: - Nadir Benchorfi: Moroccan radicalised
in Germany, who was planning attacks in
Italy. Link: - Louati Noussair: Tunisian arrested in
2015 for terrorism. He was looking for a way to go to Syria. Link: https://Inkd.in/daVwb-h9 Thanks very much to Francesco Pagano for
his good work. GZB INFOCUS: The Top Countries by
Military Spending in Three Metrics Key Takeaways: • America’s military budget is
the largest in the world, at $949 billion in 2024. • North Korea has the highest
military spending per capita in purchasing power parity terms, at $9,929. In 2024, the U.S., China, and Russia were
the top countries by military spending, representing more than half of the
global total. Overall, global military expenditures hit
a record $2.7 trillion, a 9.4% increase over the year. Amid rising geopolitical
tensions, all five regions of the world increased their military spending for
the second consecutive year. This graphic shows the most militarized
countries across three metrics, based on data from the Institute of Economics
and Peace (https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Global-Peace-Index-2025-web.pdf). With a $949 billion budget, America has
1.5 million active duty personnel across 4,790 military sites globally. China follows next, with $450 billion in
spending. Overall, Taiwan stands as a top priority for the People’s Liberation
Army (PLA), with widespread U.S. intelligence suggesting that Xi Jinping wants
to be capable of seizing the country by force by 2027. (Or 2026) Ranking in third is Russia, which
increased expenditures by an estimated 38% in 2024 amid ongoing conflict in
Ukraine. Qatar, a small gulf state bordering Saudi
Arabia, stands in second, driven by broad-based modernization of its military,
navy, and air force. Interestingly, Singapore comes in third
by this measure, despite being known as a neutral state. In fact, Singapore has
consistently spent around 3% of GDP on defense for decades, higher than most
European countries. Standing in second place is Ukraine, at
17% of GDP, totalling $103 billion. In comparison, Russia’s military budget
was 6% of GDP, at $352 billion in 2024. Today, Russia has the largest army (https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualized-europes-biggest-armies-in-2025/)
in Europe, with 1.3 million active duty personnel, while Ukraine follows with
900,000 active troops. Pray. Train. Stay informed. Build resilient communities.
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