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Title: November 5, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 5 NOVEMBER 

GRAY ZONE THREATS SITREP 

DOMESTIC TERRORISM — NOT PEACEFUL PROTEST 

Anti-ICE Protestors Arrested in Portland 

            •          A female anti-ICE protester wearing a keffiyeh was arrested after crossing a restricted blue line outside the ICE facility, making contact with an officer, and triggering a clash with federal agents who deployed pepper spray.

            •          Video from TPUSA Frontlines shows officers detaining the woman as protesters shouted. The Portland Police Bureau confirmed two arrests for crimes during the demonstration, but did not release names or charges.

            •          Protests at the South Portland ICE facility have occurred nearly nightly for weeks, opposing detentions and deportations. Activists reportedly are using a nearby “safe house” for supplies and coordination

RUSSIAN PSYOP

AI Pushing Russian Propaganda 

            •          A new Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) report reveals that OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, DeepSeek, and xAI’s Grok frequently cite sanctioned Russian state media (e.g., RT, Sputnik, EADaily) and pro-Kremlin sources in responses to queries about Russia’s war in Ukraine, with nearly 18 percent of outputs across 300 tested questions in five languages linking to such entities.

            •          Researchers exploited "data voids" in real-time information gaps to test neutral, biased, and malicious prompts on topics like NATO perceptions, peace talks, Ukrainian recruitment, refugees, and war crimes. Malicious queries yielded pro-Russian content 25 percent of the time, compared to 10 percent for neutral ones, showing confirmation bias in LLMs.

            •          The EU has sanctioned at least 27 Russian media outlets since 2022 for disinformation, including recent 2025 bans on eight more (e.g., Fondsk, NewsFront, SouthFront). Chatbots' amplification raises regulatory concerns under the Digital Services Act, as ChatGPT nears Very Large Online Platform status with 120M+ EU users.

            •          Russian networks like "Pravda" flood the web with 3.6M+ AI-generated articles yearly to "poison" LLM training data, per NewsGuard; OpenAI attributes issues to search integrations, while xAI dismissed claims as "Legacy Media Lies," highlighting foreign influence risks as AI replaces traditional search. 

SHARIA LAW BILL 

U.S. Sen Tommy Tuberville’s Calls to "Shut Down Sharia Law"

            •          Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) believes that radical Islam is the greatest threat to our national security and recently introduced two bills to counter this threat.

            •          The No Sharia Act would prohibit the application of Sharia in the United States where such application would violate constitutional rights.

            •          The Preserving a Sharia Free America Act would amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to include advocacy for Sharia law to be a ground for inadmissibility and deportability.

JIHADIST PROPAGANDA 

Captured Documents Show Al Jazeera’s Ties to Hamas 

            •          Captured Hamas documents obtained by the Israel Defense Forces reveal systematic cooperation between Hamas and Al Jazeera, including a secure "Al Jazeera phone" line for emergency editorial control over coverage to align with Hamas's narrative.

            •          The Qatari network served as a propaganda platform for Hamas during the Gaza War, broadcasting exclusive content like hostage handover videos, proof-of-life footage, and statements from Hamas officials, while using terminology such as "resistance fighters" and "martyrs" for terrorists.

            •          Documents detail direct editorial instructions from Hamas, such as minimizing reports on Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket failures, coordinating with Hamas military before airing stories, and silencing on-air criticism of the group. In one instance, a critic was interrupted during a live interview.

            •          Many Al Jazeera journalists in Gaza were Hamas operatives, including some who participated in the Oct. 7, 2023, invasion of Israel. Qatar's hosting of Hamas leadership and financial support further enables the network's role in amplifying terrorist propaganda.

MIDDLE EAST SITREP

IRAN 

Key Takeaways: 

            •          Iranian Proposals to Iraqi Militias: Iran is reportedly attempting to force its large proxy and partner militias in Iraq to move into politics, possibly to discourage US sanctions enforcement that would prevent Iran from using the Iraqi economy to evade sanctions. Iran may decide to build a loyal cadre of ideological militias over which Iran has strong control that will supplement pro-Iranian political parties in parliament while avoiding sanctions.

            •          Assessed Iraqi Reaction to Iranian Proposals: Most militias will likely resist Iran’s proposals because their military wings are both their raison d’etre and a tool they can use to enforce their will on other Iraqis. A smaller group of militias—possibly including the Badr Organization—may acquiesce to Iranian demands and integrate their militias into the PMF while focusing on politics. This would not indicate that Badr has moderated, but instead that it seeks to position itself as a preeminent pro-Iranian political force in Iraq.

            •          US Warning to Iranian-Backed Iraqi Militias: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Iraqi Defense Minister Thabet al Abbasi that the United States would take action against any Iranian-backed Iraqi militias that interfered with US operations in the region, particularly in Syria. Iraqi media have mischaracterized the US message as a warning of impending regional conflict.

CHINA 

**China Is Filling Up Its Oil Reserves Fast **- China has rapidly expanded its oil stockpiles, importing more than 11 million barrels a day this year—surpassing Saudi Arabia’s daily output—as it prepares for potential supply shocks following new U.S. sanctions on Russian crude. Analysts estimate up to 1.2 million barrels a day are being added to reserves, which now total roughly 1.2 to 1.3 billion barrels. With storage capacity at 60% utilization and prices near five-year lows, Beijing’s buildup strengthens its energy security and stabilizes global oil markets amid rising geopolitical risks. 

It can also be an indicator that China is readying for war.

LITHUANIA

The Lithuanian Army has tested heavy machine guns and Swedish-designed surface-to-air missiles against high-speed drones, as more militaries are exploring the potential of firearms as drone countermeasures of last resort.

In a video released this week by the Lithuanian armed forces, air defense artillery units are seen training with large-caliber machine guns and launching the Saab-made RBS 70 NG missiles against target drones.

Armored vehicles equipped with machine guns can also be observed in the footage, which was filmed at a training range located less than ten kilometers away from the Belarus border.

Why It Matters: 

This drill comes only a few weeks after the Baltic country adopted a new law that grants the military the authority to shoot down hostile drones, allowing it to react faster in the event of airspace violations.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda said on the evening of Oct. 23 that Russian military planes briefly violated Lithuania’s airspace in what he called “a blatant breach of international law and territorial integrity.”

The use of light weapons such as shotguns against drones in Ukraine has gained a lot of attention in recent months, grabbing the curiosity of some Western militaries as well.

One of Ukraine’s latest drone countermeasures involves a new ammunition round for rifles that simultaneously fires five moving projectiles in a cloud-shaped pattern to hit incoming targets. Introduced over the summer, Ukraine’s government-backed defense technology cluster, Brave1, reports that it can effectively hit drones at distances of up to 50 meters.

It was designed so that infantry soldiers would not need to carry two different weapons; instead, they could rapidly substitute magazines depending on whether they are engaging an enemy drone or personnel.

Another military organization evaluating shotguns to safeguard against drones is the British Army’s Experimentation and Trials Group, which is responsible for testing activities across the service.

A recent report published by the Center for European Policy Analysis argues that guns paired with interceptor drones, rather than missiles, will be the cheap answer that militaries are looking for to defeat swarms of low-cost drones.

“What happens if Russia becomes capable of sending 1,000, 2,000, or even 4,000 drones in one night? These figures are achievable with modern production methods, and Ukraine would run out of missiles very quickly,” the report notes.

It proposes that the alternative will be “modern-day flak, married with interceptor drones,” pointing out that systems such as the German Gepard Flakpanzer can carry 640 rounds, or that the Rheinmetall Skyranger 35 can hold 220 rounds in a single turret and quickly re-target.

GZB INFOCUS: GLOBAL MARITIME BRIEF

Black Sea: Tuapse Oil Terminal Struck, Tankers Damaged

Twelve UAVs hit Rosneft’s Tuapse Marine Oil Terminal overnight 1–2 Nov, igniting multiple fires, damaging the deep-water berth and several tankers, and reportedly causing an oil spill within the harbor. Vessels affected included POLLUX (Panama), CHAI(Liberia), COAST BUSTER(Bahamas) and SATURN (Russia); the small vessel NORD was reported destroyed. Local air defence response proved ineffective, underscoring coastal security gaps. Expect short-term export disruption (hundreds of thousands of bpd), reroutings to Asian buyers, and higher freight/insurance costs on Black Sea lifts.  

Operator notes: extra diligence on Black Sea calls (port state updates, berth availability, pollution controls), monitor war risk premiums, and confirm STSalternatives if scheduling shifts.

Western Indian Ocean: Piracy Attempts East-Southeast Of Mogadishu

After a relative lull since May 2024, two incidents 2–3 Nov point to a coordinated resurgence:

            •          A Spanish-flagged fishing vessel ~350 nm ESE of Mogadishu was approached at speed by a skiff assessed to be deploying from mother vessel ISSA MOHAMAD 2 (via AIS). The skiff withdrew after the crew raised alarm. 

            •          The STOLT SAGALAND(Cayman Islands-flagged tanker) ~332 nm ESE of Mogadishu faced an armed boarding attempt by four pirates, supported by a mother vessel ~5 nm away. Alarm, speed and manoeuvres—plus the onboard Armed Security Team—repelled the attack.  

These events may link to an Iranian dhow hijack the prior week and align with UKMTOreports of erratic dhow behavior near Eyl on 28 Oct, indicating pirate groups re-constituting capability via mother vessels.  

Operator notes: apply BMP5 rigor at >300 nm from the Somali coast, maintain hardening and watch routines, and consider AST for transits along the Eyl–Socotra approaches.  

Gulf Of Guinea: Dry-Season Alert

Analysts flag fresh piracy concerns as the dry seasonbegins—historically associated with increased small-boat activity and longer-range attacks. Maintain heightened watch when operating off Nigeria, Benin, Togo and Ghana, especially beyond the VRA.  

Americas & Caribbean: Maritime Security Posture Tightens

Regional reporting notes U.S. naval units operating near Venezuela, alongside maritime interdictions and drug-smuggling incidents that can affect coastal traffic and inspections. Operators should anticipate episodic checksand localized security restrictionsin contested littorals.  

Indo-Pacific: More Drills, More Friction Management

            •          China–ASEAN maritime drill activity;

            •          Philippines–Canada pact to bolster deterrence in the South China Sea;

            •          Australia, New Zealand, Philippines and U.S.cooperative maritime activity;

            •          Philippine Marinesenforcement actions around Second Thomas Shoal;

            •          Expanded illegal-fishingcountermeasures backed by Australia;

            •          Sri Lanka Navy re-equips for maritime security.  

Operator notes: expect notams/navwarnings, temporary exercise areas, and law-enforcement presence near disputed features and EEZ boundaries.

Pray.

Train. 

Stay informed.

Build resilient communities.  

—END REPORT