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Title: November 8, 2025

GRAY ZONE BRIEF 8 NOVEMBER 2025

THE WORSENING OIL GLUT

Brent crude will fall to its lowest level in five years in 2026, according to World Bank forecasts.

The World Bank predicts a widening imbalance between supply and demand in the energy market in 2026. Rising oil output, particularly from OPEC+ countries that are gradually restoring production volumes previously withdrawn under voluntary cuts, could exacerbate the glut and place additional downward pressure on prices. However, there is little reason to expect that rising supply will be met with equivalent demand. Global economic growth remains slower than expected, constrained by trade tensions and political uncertainty. China, a key energy consumer, is still experiencing a slowdown in purchasing, keeping demand subdued.

The World Bank expects this imbalance to further depress energy prices and forecasts that Brent crude will fall to its lowest level in five years in 2026. Many governments see lower energy prices as a tool to curb inflation and sustain economic growth and social stability – ongoing challenges for most economies. Yet, factors beyond supply and demand are increasingly influencing price dynamics. Uncertainty in trade policy and rising logistics costs could significantly affect market conditions. Continued geopolitical tensions and conflicts – along with expanded sanctions on one of the world’s largest energy producers, Russia, and the difficulty of quickly replacing Russian exports – could push oil prices above baseline forecasts.

MIDDLE EAST SITREP

Key Takeaways:

• Iranian Entrenchment in Iraq: The Shia Coordination Framework is reportedly considering integrating six Iranian-backed Iraqi militias into the Iraqi state to meet US demands to disarm the militias while preserving the militias’ political influence. Five of the six militias reportedly agreed to the Shia Coordination Framework’s plan, likely, in part, to preserve their existing networks and political influence. Integrating Iranian-backed Iraqi militias into the PMF could further facilitate Iran’s state capture over the Iraqi state by granting the militias access to state resources and political institutions.

• PRC-Syria Relations: The PRC abstained from a UN Security Council vote on November 6 to lift sanctions on Syrian President Ahmed al Shara and Interior Minister Anas Khattab, likely due to PRC concerns over Uyghur fighters operating in Syria. The PRC’s UN Ambassador, Fu Cong, called on the Syrian transitional government to take further steps to combat “terrorism.” PRC officials have repeatedly voiced concern over the Syrian transitional government’s appointment of Uyghurs associated with the Turkistan Islamic Party to high ranks within the Syrian army.

• Hezbollah Disarmament: Israeli defense sources claimed on November 7 that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) has occasionally been aware of or “cooperated with” Hezbollah in its efforts to reconstitute. This report comes amid international concern, particularly from Israel, the United States, and Saudi Arabia, over the LAF’s limited progress in disarming Hezbollah.

GLOBAL SITREP

PYONGYANG & THE KREMLIN

Russia and North Korea. A delegation of Russian defense officials, led by the deputy defense minister, held talks on Thursday with North Korea’s defense minister. On Wednesday, the Russian representatives met with members of the North Korean military’s General Political Bureau to discuss strengthening cooperation, exchanges and coordination. Earlier this week, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service said about 10,000 North Korean troops are currently deployed in Russia performing “security duties,” while another 1,000 engineers were deployed to remove landmines.

AFRICA

Uranium from Africa. French authorities have reportedly been notified that Russia’s state nuclear energy corporation, Rosatom, may have signed a deal with Niger’s military junta to acquire 1,000 tons of unenriched uranium concentrate. French firm Orano produced the supplies at its former Arlit mine in northern Niger before the junta revoked its license to operate in 2024. Rosatom is reportedly working with Nigerien authorities to transport the uranium to Togo’s Lome port by the end of this month for shipment to Russia.

AMERIKASTAN UPDATE

U.S. and Central Asia. The heads of state of the five Central Asian countries met in Washington with U.S. President Donald Trump. They discussed transport, communications and energy projects linking Central Asia with the South Caucasus and Europe. Creation of an investment and trade coordination council, as well as a Central Asian investment partnership fund, was proposed. They also discussed coordinating efforts on the exploration, production and advanced processing of critical minerals.

U.S. & MYFAVORITESTAN

More details. During the summit, Uzbek companies and government agencies signed a number of agreements with U.S. firms. According to Trump, Uzbekistan will purchase goods and make investments worth nearly $35 billion over the next three years and more than $100 billion over the next 10 years. Likewise, Kazakhstan signed $17 billion worth of commercial agreements with the United States during the visit.

KAZAKHSTAN

Newest signatory. Trump and the president of Kazakhstan also spoke by phone from the White House with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about Kazakhstan’s intention to join the Abraham Accords. Kazakhstan, which has had diplomatic relations with Israel for many years, would be the fifth Muslim-majority country to sign on to the declaration.

JAPAN & CHINA

Easing tensions. Japan has resumed seafood exports to China for the first time since Beijing banned the products in 2023 over the release of treated radioactive wastewater from the defunct Fukushima nuclear plant. China is also set to resume beef imports from Japan, which were halted following an outbreak of mad cow disease in 2001.

NORTH & SOUTH KOREA

Pyongyang's response. North Korea launched a suspected short-range ballistic missile toward the East Sea (also known as the Sea of Japan) on Friday, South Korea’s military said. The move came days after the U.S. imposed sanctions on eight North Koreans and two North Korean entities over cybercrime-related money laundering.

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— END REPORT